Despite an awfully good chance that the writers strike will torpedo this year's Oscar ceremony, the Academy has gone ahead and released its nominations anyway. There are a few unexpected surprises (did "Norbit" really get more Oscar nominations than "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead?"), but for the most part it's business as usual for an awards ceremony increasingly regarded by many as an irrelevant glam-fest.
In spite of the Academy's tendency to embrace blandly populist fare over high-caliber filmmaking, even the most stone-hearted movie fan can't help but eye the nominations each year in the hope that his or her favorite film might come out on top. When all is said and done, everybody loves the Oscars
This year, the Academy even showed some guts by filling the Best Picture category with a reasonably deserving selection of films. I'm willing to overlook the inclusion of an overrated bore like "Atonement" or a harmless piece of fluff like "Juno" in the spirit of the other three Best Picture nominees, a powerhouse trio that includes "Michael Clayton," "There Will Be Blood" and "No Country for Old Men." The latter film has a lot of deserved momentum in the press right now, but look for "There Will Be Blood" to emerge as a dark horse if "No Country" peaks too soon. Either that or "Atonement" will pull an upset and I will move to Canada in protest.
It may have been a great year for movies but it has not been so for female actresses, most of whom have been undeservedly relegated to the sidelines to make room for a series of male-centric narratives. It says something about the state of Hollywood that 2008's surest lock for the Best Supporting Actress competition -- Cate Blanchett for "I'm Not There" -- was nominated for playing a guy. Blanchett's Bob Dylan impersonation should have no trouble fending off competition from dark-horse Amy Ryan (whose work in "Gone Baby Gone" is far more deserving) leaving Ruby Dee ("American Gangster"), Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement") and Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton") to pick over the scraps.
The Best Actress category, by contrast, shows marginally more depth. Blanchett appears here again, this time for her performance in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," but all the attention is on Marion Cotillard for her immersive portrayal of Edith Piaf in "La Vie En Rose." Julie Christie might catch up to her as an Alzheimer's patient in "Away from Her," but conventional wisdom states that Cotillard has had this category on lock down since June. That's bad news for Ellen Page ("Juno") and Laura Linney ("The Savages"), both of whom are the sentimental favorites of a passionate few.
A much closer race is emerging in the Best Actor category, where Hollywood heartthrobs like George Clooney ("Michael Clayton") and Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") will be duking it out with consummate professionals Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). I enjoyed Viggo Mortensen as the sad-eyed Russian mobster in "Eastern Promises," but it's hard not to root for Day-Lewis, whose tour-de-force performance as a misanthropic oil baron is the stuff of legend. He's also the likely winner of the category, though it's never wise to count George Clooney out of any race.
Similarly, the smart money is on Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") in the Best Supporting Actor category, but there's still a lot of love out there for Hal Holbrook, a veteran actor who may win on the basis of his celebrated career (or as a consolation prize for the otherwise-ignored "Into the Wild"). Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tom Wilkinson deserve credit for walking away with their scenes in "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Michael Clayton" respectively, and Casey Affleck did a great job upstaging Brad Pitt in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," but these actors are living on a prayer as far as the race is concerned.
I rejoice in Joe Wright's absence from the Best Director category for his deplorable work on "Atonement," especially since his seat has been effectively filled by the immeasurably more talented Julian Schnabel. Schnabel did a great job on "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," but I have a feeling this category is going to swing for Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" is the work of a brilliant auteur. Joel and Ethan Coen ("No Country for Old Men") are also strong contenders, as is Tony Gilroy (father of Sam Gilroy '09) for "Michael Clayton." Jason Reitman ("Juno") might stand a better chance if it were the Best Cotton Candy Salesman category, but as it is, his cutesy tweeny-bopper sensibility is unlikely to be recognized here.
All told, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" are currently in the lead with eight nominations apiece, followed by seven each for "Michael Clayton" and "Atonement." It's all shaping up to be an exciting three-hour marathon, or alternatively a somewhat-less-than-exciting one-hour press conference if the strike isn't resolved by Oscar night, Feb. 24. I don't know about you but I'm still clinging to the vain hope that the writers and studios will settle their differences before the Oscars go live, if only to see Javier Bardem give his acceptance speech in the voice of Anton Chigurgh.
