In the third major Republican primary of the 2000 Presidential election campaign, GOP hopefuls competing for votes in South Carolina tomorrow face a political landscape that has shifted drastically in the aftermath of the N.H. results.
According to the latest polls in South Carolina, Texas Governor George W. Bush, once considered the shoe-in for the Republican nomination, is in a dead heat with Senator John McCain with Bush doing well among conservative Republicans and McCain performing strongly with independents.
McCain's campaign gained a strong boost by his surprisingly decisive victory in N.H. on Feb. 1 where he gained 49 percent of the Republican vote compared to the 30 percent earned by Bush.
Much of McCain's support in the Granite State came from independent voters, who turned out in force to vote for their candidate.
McCain's popularity among independents will be important in South Carolina as well, where election laws allow voters to decide their party affiliation on the day of polling.
Furthermore, unlike N.H., where McCain had to face competition for independent votes from Democratic Candidate and former Senator Bill Bradley, in South Carolina, where the Democrats do not vote until March 9, many independents (and even Democrats) may chose to register and vote in the earlier Republican contest.
Also, unlike those in earlier contests, voters in South Carolina will have a much narrower field to choose from -- the only other national candidate who remains on the Republican ballot is Alan Keyes.
As a result, the two major candidates have been directly focusing on each other -- often directly confronting each other over campaign methods and issues.
In a debate Tuesday, the candidates argued over abortion, campaign finance, policy toward Russia, taxes, Social Security, and the don't-ask-don't-tell policy on gays in the military.
However, much of the debate time also focused on recriminations with McCain confronting Bush about negative personal attacks.
McCain has repeatedly accused the Bush campaign of push polling -- a tactic where the pollsters give the impression that they are conducting a real poll, but actually pose questions that spread doubts about the opponent. This is a charge that the Bush vehemently denies.
The South Carolina race has also brought to light weaknesses in the Bush campaign. Earlier in the primary season, political observers were surprised by Bush's fundraising successes -- his campaign raised an unprecedented $68 million in 1999.
However, Bush spent $37 million even before the first vote was cast last month in Iowa, and continues to spend at the rate of three million dollars a week, which is much faster than the rate at which his coffers are being replenished.
McCain, on the other hand experienced a surge in donations following his N.H. victory and reports earning four million dollars in on-line gifts alone.
McCain has also started winning friends among the Republican establishment -- Gary Bauer, who dropped out of the race February 4 endorsed McCain's presidential bid Wednesday.
Nationally, the results of this race are crucial -- the winner could gain momentum that would aid them next in Tuesday's Republican primaries in Arizona and Michigan.
Democrat contenders former Senator Bill Bradley and Vice President Al Gore are presently campaigning nationally in preparation for the next round of contests. Democrats will vote in Washington on Feb. 29 and then in 16 states on "Super Tuesday," March 7. Republicans will also vote in the same states on March 7.
