A presidential hopeful might spend the afternoon as a "celebrity shooter" at a county shoot out as former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn., did in Keene this past Tuesday or announce his candidacy at the Hanover Inn and move to Manchester, which was the course of action for former Gov. Buddy Roemer, R-La. Regardless of presidential Republican contenders' strategies, campaign managers, New Hampshire state legislators and campaigning experts agree it is no secret candidates hoping to win the presidential nomination must campaign often in New Hampshire.
The importance of New Hampshire to the race is no secret, and the political eminence is proven by the number of important events that take place here. By the time the state conducts the first-in-the-nation primary election, New Hampshire will have hosted two Republican presidential debates, one in Manchester on June 13 and one at the College on Oct. 11.
"The New Hampshire primary tends to be incredibly important," Dartmouth government professor Joseph Bafumi said. "It helps candidates first show their legitimacy as top contenders and then gives them momentum when they move on to the other states and towards winning the nomination."
Due to the important primary, New Hampshire is frequented by presidential hopefuls throughout election season, which allows voters the opportunity to speak with candidates in person. Numerous declared and potential Republican candidates have visited New Hampshire 152 times over 283 days so far this year, according to Eric Appleman, founder of Democracy in Action, a website that tracks the 2012 race for the White House.
Former Gov. Gary Johnson, R-N.M., has spent 54 days in New Hampshire, the longest amount of time for any single Republican presidential hopeful, Appleman said. Former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., and former Gov. John Huntsman, R-Utah, have each visited New Hampshire for 33 days and are tied for second. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, however, have visited the state fewer than 15 days combined, Appleman said.
A latecomer to the race, Perry plans to increase his Granite State presence, and has scheduled two visits in October, according to his website.
Bachmann's strategy of focusing her attention on Iowa is "wise," Dartmouth government professor Dean Lacy said. Bachmann's more conservative Republican stance will more likely attract like-minded voters in states like Iowa and South Carolina than in New Hampshire, which is more moderate, he said.
While Bachmann's strategy focus on Iowa which hosts the first caucus and the first of any national primary contests may prove successful given her ideological leanings, moderate candidates are more likely to eschew the state in favor of New Hampshire, Bafumi said.
"If it's a choice between one or the other, you probably might want to win New Hampshire more than Iowa," Bafumi said.
Past elections results demonstrate that winning the New Hampshire primary does not guarantee a presidential win, while a loss does not necessarily oust an already strong contender from the race. In the past two decades, three candidates who won in New Hampshire former President Bill Clinton, former President George H. W. Bush and former President George W. Bush eventually won the presidential election. In 2008, President Barack Obama lost the New Hampshire primary by 2.6 percent to Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to the federal election record. During the 1992 Democratic presidential primary, Clinton won his party's nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire.
Less prominent candidates like Johnson, Roemer and Independent Republican candidate Fred Karger hope to attract New Hampshire's significant number of independent voters, which total 40 percent of the electorate, according to Aug. 31 data collected by the New Hampshire Secretary of State office.
Given the state's small size, lesser-known candidates can spend time getting to know voters, according to Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center, a free market think tank based in New Hampshire.
"New Hampshire could destroy the campaign of almost any of the candidates, based on how they finish," he said. "Some of them are looking for New Hampshire to prove they have a chance, and if they don't prove it, they're out. Others have to win New Hampshire, or else they cease being a front runner and the wheels fall off their campaigns."
New Hampshire is the Huntsman campaign's "top priority," Michael Levoff, a spokesman for Hunstman's presidential campaign, said.
"We are aggressively campaigning across the state and reaching out to communities in every county," Levoff wrote in an email to The Dartmouth.
Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas who has spent 18 days in the state but fared well with more conservative voters in his Ames, Ia., straw poll win opened his official New Hampshire campaign office on Aug. 17 and is scheduled to speak in Derry, N.H., next Thursday, according to a press release on his website. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., has also committed some of his campaign to New Hampshire, and has spent 16 days in the state.
Johnson has launched "The New Hampshire Path," a $198,700-campaign that aims to achieve support from 5 to 10 percent of Granite State voters, according to Johnson's website. The campaign will include buying a 30-second television advertisement, five radio ads, half a billboard, 100 bumper stickers and 75 mailings.
Roemer, who has pledged not to accept any donations above $100 or any funding from political action committees, has planned to make New Hampshire his national headquarters, according to campaign manager Carlos Sierra.
"A lot of people have never heard of [Roemer], to be honest," Sierra said in an interview The Dartmouth. "The reaction is usually, Buddy, who?' But as soon as they hear him speak, the reception's been great."
Roemer, who spoke at Dartmouth as part of the Leading Voices Lecture series this summer, plans to launch a college tour across the state of New Hampshire due to increased interest among voters aged 18 to 30, according to Sierra. He announced his candidacy near Dartmouth in order to "reach the young generation," Sierra said.
Karger estimates that he has spent 40 percent of his 19-month long campaign in New Hampshire, which he identified as his focal point.
"I'm an Independent Republican, and I think the most moderate candidate in the race, and I can appeal to that 40 percent of registered independent voters in New Hampshire," Karger said in an interview with The Dartmouth. "I've been all over, speaking to Republican groups, the elderly, chambers of commerce, going door-to-door. I'm the first candidate who's done that, and I've been to just about every town all over."
The rural makeup of New Hampshire can make it difficult for candidates to get around and visit large groups of voters efficiently. Republican presidential candidates typically visit Concord and larger cities in the more densely-populated southern half of New Hampshire, such as Manchester.
"That's a disappointment to me," New Hampshire state Sen. Jeannie Forrester, R-Grafton, said. "Candidates need to try harder to visit the northern part of state because we matter too."
Conservative presidential hopefuls may avoid northern New Hampshire counties since many have higher concentrations of Democratic voters, according to Lacy. In Hanover, 13 percent of voters are registered Republicans while 41 percent are registered Democrats.
"Most of the candidates will not come up here, as it's not a place to get a lot of Republican voters," he said. "Most of the candidates will appear in Concord, Nashua and Manchester, but you'll most likely see some student organizations and smaller local campaigns here in the coming weeks, especially right before the debate."
Republican state legislators have begun to endorse presidential hopefuls like Perry, who announced 27 new endorsements from New Hampshire lawmakers on Wednesday.
"The thing is, there are 294 Republican state legislators in New Hampshire, so to receive the endorsement of a handful does not suggest much," Arlinghaus said. "It does not matter who endorses you, it matters how many and even then, that doesn't matter too much."
A recent Suffolk University poll showed Romney leading the New Hampshire primary among his fellow candidates with a 27 point lead, followed by Paul at 14 percent and Huntsman with 10 percent. Perry gained 8 percent of the vote; Palin, 6 percent; Bachmann, 5 percent; Gingrich, 4 percent; Santorum, 1 percent; Roemer, 1 percent. Eleven percent of likely primary voters said they were undecided, according to the poll.
The campaign offices of Gingrich, Bachmann, Paul, Cain, Johnson and Santorum did not respond to requests for comment by press time.
