Americans woke up on Wednesday morning to the largest change in the House of Representatives since 1948, when Democrats gained 75 congressional seats. This time, however, it was the Republicans who were celebrating. All told, Republicans gained 60 seats in the House, six seats in the Senate and nine governorships.
Although many of these candidates campaigned on a platform of smaller government, the legislative effects on higher education and health care may not be felt immediately, according to government professor Linda Fowler.
"What I'm expecting this Congress to do is mostly deal with economic issues initially, because they have to raise the debt ceiling," Fowler said. "They have to deal with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. They have to do something about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are bleeding money."
Fowler said she does not expect House Republicans to "do much legislatively on higher education" past using committee members to engage in oversight. But Fowler said Republicans might make cuts to Congressional discretionary spending, which includes funding for the National Institutes of Health.
The NIH, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, saw large increases in its budget during the early years of President Barack Obama's administration, according to Fowler. Such budget cuts would have an effect on graduate programs, laboratories and medical research, she said, but the effects on undergraduate education would be minimal.
On the state level, however, public schools and universities will most likely face severe budget cuts, Inside Higher Ed reported. Voters in many states across the country decided on ballot measures that would result in lower taxes and tighter budgets.
In Massachusetts, voters passed Question 1 a proposal to eliminate a sales tax on alcohol but rejected Question 3, which would have cut the sales tax by more than half, to 3 percent. Kathleen Schatzberg, president of Cape Cod Community College in West Barnstable, Mass., wrote in the Cape Cod Times that the "passage of Question 3 [would] devastate higher education" and cut state revenue by billions of dollars. Massachusetts is already facing an annual budget gap of $2 billion, according to Inside Higher Ed.
Voters in Washington turned down initiatives to increase income taxes on the wealthy and provide bonds for energy efficiency in schools, although they did vote to end certain sales and excise taxes. The results will create a greater strain on the state's budget, which already faces a multibillion-dollar deficit, the Associated Press reported.
Following the results of the midterm elections, Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio the current minority leader who is presumed to be the next Speaker of the House said in a news conference that the Republicans will "do everything [they] can to try to repeal [the health care] bill, and replace it with common-sense reforms that will bring down the cost of health insurance."
Fowler said a complete overhaul might not be possible with a Democratic majority in the Senate.
"I don't think they have the votes to undo the health care bill," Fowler said. "I think what they may try to do is defund or deny funds to implement some of the health care provisions, like the federally-financed pools for high-risk, high-expense patients."
A provision that allows young adults to stay on their parents' health plans until they are 26 would most likely not be affected because it is a regulatory requirement that does not require federal funding, according to Fowler. In order to change it, Republicans would have to draft and pass an entirely new bill that would receive the approval of the Senate and Obama an outcome that does not seem feasible, Fowler said.
Democratic Gov. John Lynch now faces a Republican majority in the New Hampshire legislature. Although Lynch and Republicans have no interest in implementing a state income tax, Fowler said she expects "tough negotiations" in dealing with the state's budget shortfalls.
"There will be really tough fights about where they're going to find revenue and what the priorities for cutting [spending] will be," she said.
The numerous Republican victories nationwide can be attributed to both voter dissatisfaction with the slow economic recovery and the large number of seats that Republicans lost in 2006 and 2008, according to Fowler. The large Democratic majority in Congress was a departure from the norm.
The effects of this year's Republican sweep may not be as extreme as some media commentators and the candidates themselves make them out to be, Fowler said.
"There were all sorts of predictions made about how [the 2008] election would transform American politics," she said. "Obviously that wasn't true, so I think that anybody who is making commentary about this election should bear in mind how wrong most of the punditry was and be modest about reading too much into this election."
