The prevailing media narrative emerging from last Tuesday's off-cycle elections, and the two Republican gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia, is that President Obama and Congressional Democrats are in huge trouble for next year's midterms, and that the Republican Party is poised for a major comeback. Ignoring the larger problems with trying to extrapolate any kind of broader political trend from a handful of low-turnout and low-salience races, the above narrative is, to put it plainly, utterly laughable. The Democrats will probably lose seats in next year's midterms, but that will be more a result of the natural ebbs and flows of American politics than of any supposed widespread dissatisfaction with the president and the Democrats.
The media's eagerness to declare election night a huge Republican victory ignores both history and the specifics of those two races. New Jersey and Virginia have voted against the president's party in their governor's races for the last 24 years, even going against former President Bush and the Republicans in 2001, when Bush was at the peak of his popularity, sporting the highest approval ratings in history.
Furthermore, the idea that those races were some sort of referendum on President Obama is baseless. In Virginia, defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds spent all summer running against Obama's policies, even saying he might opt out of the public health care option if he were elected. Obama's positions weren't represented by either candidate in this race. Most likely, Deeds lost because he ran a poor campaign, was exceptionally uncharismatic and deflated Obama surge voters (youths and blacks) by constantly bashing the president.
In New Jersey, most voters said that the President had no impact on their vote. Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, an independently wealthy, corrupt and unpopular former Goldman Sachs partner, likely suffered from his extensive Wall Street ties, as well as general voter dissatisfaction with incumbent governors nationwide as most states encounter massive budgetary problems.
If anything, it's easier to make the case that Tuesday's results were hopeful for the Democrats. They won the only two federal races contested that evening, adding two votes to their House majority, which immediately became useful in passing the House's version of the health care bill Saturday night by a scant 220-215 margin. One of those races, the special election to replace Army secretary John McHugh, R-N.Y., in New York's 23rd district, was especially sweet for the Democrats, because they had not controlled parts of that district in over 130 years. Also emerging from that close contest was a continuation of the divisions that have racked the Republican Party in the last year. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman who was backed by national conservative personalities like Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh torpedoed moderate Republican and initial favorite Dede Scozzafava, forcing her to withdraw and opening the door for the Democrat Bill Owens to steal victory.
Hoffman's success against Scozzafava, combined with the successes of similar far-right spoilers like Pennsylvania's Pat Toomey and Florida's Marco Rubio in challenging moderate establishment Republicans, might embolden more conservatives to try similar tactics in the coming months. This would pose a tremendous recruiting problem for Republican leadership, as powerful moderate candidates might be reticent to enter races in swing districts if they fear assaults by candidates to their right. It is already extremely difficult to recruit top-flight challengers immediately before redistricting, as there is a chance that a hard-won district will be gerrymandered out of existence there is a significant possibility that the Republican talent pool will be poisoned by mediocrity next year, aiding incumbent Democrats.
None of this is to say that President Obama and congressional Democrats are sitting pretty for next year. In 2006 and 2008, the Democrats rode an overwhelming wave of resentment towards President Bush to huge gains, overreaching and winning districts that they had no chance of retaining in normal years. On top of that, the president's party has lost seats in every midterm election in our history save three so there is a significant chance that the Democratic majorities will get thinner, particularly if unemployment remains high. What we're talking about, though, is a slight-to-mild regression to the mean, not a wave of anti-Obama sentiment foreshadowed by Tuesday's results. Let's let the Republicans score more than a couple off-year wins before we declare their escape from the political wilderness.
