A.J. Fox:
Ever since the Oscar nominations were announced, it seems like the entire world has been split into two camps: the cheering throngs who think that "Slumdog Millionaire" is the best movie of the decade, and the grouchy contrarians who tout their distaste for the film as a badge of independence. I'd like to humbly assert a middle path: "Slumdog" is a charming little movie, whose near-certain Best Picture win is neither a vindication nor a travesty.
Leslie Adkins:
I wanted certain things for this category. Nominations for "Wall-E" and "The Dark Knight" were well deserved, but noticeably absent. Secretly, I still want "Milk" to win. I want that surprise, the unbelievable upset, the California-you-passed-Proposition-8-so-attempt-to-redeem-yourself-in-an-art-meets-life feat of triumph. But the future's been foretold: "Slumdog" will win the ultimate prize, which it also deserves.
Evan Lambert:
"Slumdog Millionaire" has swept all the pre-Oscar award ceremonies and charmed white liberals everywhere with its feel-good storyline. An upset could only happen if someone bribed the Academy with sexual favors. In fact, the only other film that has the slightest chance is "The Reader." Though the movie is somewhat dull, it has cut-throat Harvey Weinstein at its helm as studio head, who would stop at nothing to nab the win and the statue that comes with it.
Critics' Consensus: "Slumdog Millionaire"
DIRECTING
A.J. Fox:
This is usually the least interesting category of the evening -- not because directors don't know how to give good acceptance speeches, but because the winner is essentially predetermined by the Directors Guild of America. Over the past 59 years, only six DGA Award winners have missed out on the Oscar. That's pretty good odds for Danny Boyle, who took the Feature Film category last week for "Slumdog Millionaire."
Leslie Adkins:
Yes, Ron Howard, you consistently deliver great American dramas. Gus Van Sant, you could probably bring us to tears with a story about the growth of mold. You've done a wonderful job with "The Reader," Stephen Daldry, but it just doesn't shine. "Benjamin Button" was a change for you, Mr. Fincher, a lovely one -- now please go back to the dark, twisted glory of "Fight Club." Yet you all pale in comparison to the ambitious direction Danny Boyle showcased in "Slumdog."
Evan Lambert:
Danny Boyle managed to create Dickensian magic in the slums of Mumbai while employing in-your-face cinematography and music that normally wouldn't mesh. Seriously, anyone who can use "Paper Planes" in a soundtrack deserves an Oscar. Boyle's only competition is David Fincher, who might win based on his body of work prior to Oscar night ("Fight Club," "Zodiac"). Making Brad Pitt look unattractive and undesirable is quite an achievement.
Critics' Consensus: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
A.J. Fox:
"WALL-E" will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, which is roughly equivalent to Michael Phelps winning the gold medal in a junior varsity swim meet. Sure it's nice, but isn't there something wrong with this? It's time for the Academy to acknowledge the artistic possibilities of animation by dispensing with this ridiculous consolation category and giving mature, intelligent animated movies like "WALL-E" a shot at Best Picture.
Leslie Adkins:
"Kung Fu Panda" winning the Annie Awards is kind of like "The Hills" winning an Emmy for Best Reality Series. Because I am both an optimist and sane, I can rest assured it will not win Best Animated Film. Despite the industry blunder of the Annies, Academy members will not lack the clarity of mind their associates did, and the exceptional "Wall-E" will win, allowing justice to prevail.
Evan Lambert:
"WALL-E" was easily the best film of the year. I have no idea why the Academy didn't forego the Animated category and nominate it for Best Picture. The "female lead," Eve is a robotic throwback to the beautiful Disney heroines of olde. She even trounces Belle in the smarts department; after all, you can't beat a computer chip for a brain. I highly doubt I'll ever fall in love with a robot again, especially one that serves as a figurehead for the environmental protection movement.
Critics' Consensus: "Wall-E"
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
A.J. Fox:
What the hell is Angelina Jolie doing in this category? Her performance in "Changeling" was so listless and unimaginative that it made me long for the days of "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider." Still, Hollywood loves a beauty queen in distress, which also explains why Kate Winslet will probably win an Oscar this year for "The Reader." The fact that Winslet has been nominated six times without a single trophy probably doesn't hurt her chances either.
Leslie Adkins:
It's a rare joy to see so many powerhouse performances in one category (with the exception of Angelina Jolie's pity nomination for "Changeling"). Despite excellent performances by Streep and Leo, the real race is between the remaining two nominees. Anne Hathaway may have been the golden girl at the beginning of the awards cattle call, but her sardonic performance has been bested by another woman. Six-time Oscar nominee Kate Winslet will finally win.
Evan Lambert:
If Weinstein has his way, Kate Winslet will be taking the statuette home (and rightfully so, after all the noms she's received). Her chilling portrayal of a Nazi war criminal is one of the only good things about "The Reader." However, Meryl Streep's intimidating depiction of a domineering nun has me (and most likely Academy voters) reaching for a change of underwear. This will be a fight to the death, but I would put my money on Kate. Meryl's already won twice -- she's over it by now.
Critics' Consensus: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
A.J. Fox:
Conventional wisdom has already assigned Mickey Rourke an Oscar for his performance in "The Wrestler," a prediction that has journalists racing to produce the most unoriginal sports metaphor of all time. But if you look closely, there's a dark horse looming in the background that threatens to spoil Mickey's comeback. Though Sean Penn has already won an Oscar, his exquisite performance may earn him Best Actor while "Milk" misses out on Best Picture.
Leslie Adkins:
The suspense surrounding this category is less than palpable. We all know who the award's going to -- we've denied much too long the mesmerizing performance that is a Mickey Rourke hallmark. Though he's lost his sexy, smoldering good looks, his raw, earnest performance in "The Wrestler" is destined to win him the Best Actor Oscar. Sean Penn's noble portrayal of Harvey Milk would have won in another awards season, but this year belongs to Rourke.
Evan Lambert:
Sean Penn delivered a knockout performance as Harvey Milk in Gus Van Sant's docudrama, "Milk." Charismatic, charming and poignant, Penn brought an "X-factor" to Milk's character that made the politician seem like a genuinely friendly and ambitious model citizen. Although we all knew how Harvey's story would end up, Penn made us care enough about him that we still felt like we lost a close friend in the end.
Critics' Consensus: Sean Penn, "Milk"
WRITING: ADAPTED AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS
A.J. Fox:
The screenplay nominations have always been Hollywood's unspoken apology to small independent movies that deserve more attention than their limited marketing budgets will allow. "Happy-Go-Lucky," "In Bruges" and "Frozen River" are among the year's best films, but without the lure of expensive promotional campaigns, they'll probably lose out to "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Milk" in the Adapted and Original Screenplay categories, respectively.
Leslie Adkins:
"Benjamin Button" is 30 minutes too long to deserve this prize for an adapted screenplay, despite the gorgeous story it weaves. I'm expecting "Slumdog Millionaire" to prove that Oscar favorites and matinee idols are no obstacle for a determined underdog. First-time filmmaker Courtney Hunt's courageous "Frozen River" faces stiff competition from the jovial "Happy-Go-Lucky." Also, don't discount "In Bruges" -- the script was good enough to make Colin Farrell get clean. This category is a toss up.
Evan Lambert:
Best Original Screenplay will probably go to "WALL-E" to make up for the lack of Best Picture love, while Best Adapted Screenplay will easily go to "Slumdog Millionaire" since the film will most likely win Best Picture as well. Although the winners this year won't be wearing leopard-striped dresses and talking about their former days as strippers, we can still be entertained by their lovingly awkward acceptance speeches (hey, they're writers -- who said they have to be charismatic orators?).
Critics' Consensus: "Milk"
