Grafton County, like all of New Hampshire, has slightly more registered Republicans than Democrats, according to John Chamberlin, chair of the Grafton County Democratic Committee. While Hanover had approximately three times as many registered Democrats than Republicans during the 2004 Presidential primary, Grafton County as a whole had around 3000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.
According to Karen Cervantes, who sits on the Lebanon Town Republican Committee, Democratic strongholds around Lebanon and Hanover have dissuaded Republican constituents in the past.
"A lot of them feel like 'What's the point in voting,'" Cervantes said, referring to registered Republicans in these areas. "We try to tell them that one vote could make the difference."
Cervantes believes that the upcoming primary, however, will not see low Republican voter turnout. He cited the lack of an incumbent, a clear front-runner and the fact that Republicans will not have to vote against Democrats, as factors that will draw record numbers of Grafton County Republicans to the polls.
On the Democratic side, dissatisfaction with the current administration and the high turnout in the Iowa caucuses will likely bring out Grafton County Democrats in record numbers, Lori Shipulski, the Hanover Democratic Town Chair, said.
"There's a competitive feeling in New Hampshire," Shipulski said of the approaching primary, which is the nation's second nominating contest. "People don't want Iowa to show them up."
Grafton County also features a large number of independents. During the 2004 presidential primary, undeclared voters made up the largest plurality, exceeding the number of registered Democrats or Republicans. These independent voters have contributed to the nomination of Democratic presidential candidates during the past two elections.
"Forty percent of this county is undeclared; it is the single biggest voting bloc," Chamberlin said. "I would bet that the vast majority of that bloc is more likely to vote Democrat than Republican."
In deciding which candidate to support, voters -- whether Republican, Democrat or independent -- will be faced with a wide array of issues on which to base their decision. Iraq, immigration, the economy and education will all play a role in Republican voters' decisions, Cervantes said. Shipulski said that Democrats were also unlikely to be motivated to vote by just a single issue.
Former representative Hilda Sokol, D-N.H., however, believes that the health care system in particular will be a major factor for Upper Valley voters.
"This is a pocketbook issue and a health issue," said Sokol, who endorsed Democratic candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., for president. "It doesn't just affect those that need the insurance but also the employers who can't cover it anymore."
On the other hand, Shipulski thought that environmental concerns could be primary concerns for local Demoratic voters due to the large number of groups in the Upper Valley that focus on these issues, including organizations concentrating on alternative sources of energy.
This plethora of issues and candidates, in addition to the competitive nature of the race, has led different leaders and institutions within the state to endorse different people for both parties' nominations.
While Clinton received endorsements from many of the major New Hampshire newspapers, former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., surprised many with the number of endorsements he received from Upper Valley leaders and grassroots activists. Shipulski attributes this to the fact that Upper Valley residents are more involved in the political process than residents elsewhere.
"People in this area seem to investigate the issues more deeply," Shipulski said. "People who take the time to understand the issues like his platform."
Scott Brown, the CEO of New Energy Capital and a member of the New Hampshire Environmentalists for Sen. Barack Obama's, D-Ill., Steering Committee, stated that endorsements at the local level have only a "limited impact" on the outcome of the vote. It was far more important that Obama received endorsements from New Hampshire representatives in Congress, he added.
Though Upper Valley Republicans are far less vocal than their Democratic counterparts, they have endorsed former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, R-N.Y., Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., in fairly equal measures, Cervantes said.
The Upper Valley News chose to endorse McCain on the Republican ticket, explaining that he "represents the best hope to liberate a party that is being held hostage to its own worst instincts." On the Democratic side, the paper endorsed Barack Obama, explaining that he possessed the "sound character, intuitive understanding and charismatic leadership to break old patterns and unify the country."
According to Cervantes, who is also the chair of Grafton County for McCain, the paper's endorsement of McCain, along with the many other New Hampshire newspaper endorsements, will boost the number of votes he receives in the primary. Shipulski, however, was skeptical that the endorsement would benefit either candidate.
"When people make their decisions, the local newspaper is not really a big thing they look to," said Shipulski, who has endorsed Edwards.
The close nature of the race has caused many campaigns to offer to drive their supporters to the polls, although the local Republican and Democratic committees themselves are not providing transportation for potential voters, said Barbara McIlroy, president of the Upper Valley League of Women Voters. For those who may still need transportation, the non-partisan political organization has placed an advertisement in a local newspaper letting prospective voters know that they can call the league if they require transport to a polling station.
These efforts by the campaigns, traditionally the purveiw of unaffiliated grassroots organizations, have forced unaffiliated groups to pursue other methods to encourage voter turnout. The League has focused its efforts on teaching students how to vote, McIlroy said. The group has produced flyers explaining how and where to vote and has distributed them to four high schools in the Upper Valley, she added.
OneVote, a non-partisan organization that seeks to eradicate poverty, starvation and AIDS, has focused its efforts on meeting candidates to discuss these issues, according to Matthew Bartlett, Regional Organizer for the ONE Campaign in New Hampshire.
