Montgomery fellow and renowned presidential historian Robert Dallek, who will lecture Tuesday in Filene Auditorium, shed light on the current administration and the 2004 presidential election in a recent interview with The Dartmouth.
Voters' judgments of the continuing violence in Iraq and of the Bush administration's "inaccurate or false assumptions," will determine the outcome, according to Dallek. "The Iraq war will be the determinative influence," he said.
Dallek cited the continued loss of American lives and the ongoing insurgencies in Iraq as specific factors that will influence the election.
While he acknowledged the difficulty that comes with evaluating ongoing presidencies, Dallek said that some troublesome signs are already apparent in the Bush administration.
"The Bush administration is a work in progress," Dallek said. "But already we see the same signs that were injurious to Harry Truman when there was a stalemate in Korea," he added, noting that Truman's approval rating dropped into the 30 percent range during that period.
Dallek pointed out that previous administrations have been destroyed by unpopular wars, perhaps most notably that of Lyndon Johnson, who chose not to run for reelection in the midst of the Vietnam War.
"Johnson's administration was destroyed by Vietnam," Dallek said. "We're not at that point yet with Bush."
Bush is not the only president that Dallek has evaluated during an active term in office. Dallek's "Ronald Reagan: The Politics of Symbolism" was first published in 1984, during Reagan's presidency.
"It's very difficult to get the picture," Dallek said of historically analyzing presidents during active terms. "But if you know American history," he said, "you can see the lines of continuity. You can make judgments."
A prolific writer and a recurrent guest on many of television's most watched news programs, Dallek will be on campus for the entirety of Summer term thanks to the Kenneth and Harle Montgomery Endowment.
For this election year, the focus of the endowment is on presidential politics.
Dallek said that studying the presidents is "a lot of fun." With elections every four years, the institution of the presidency is constantly changing, which according to Dallek, makes it a "really interesting and dynamic field of study."
"If you want to understand American history," Dallek said, "a great way to do it is through the presidency."
Dallek is perhaps best known for some of the revelations made in his most recent book, "An Unfinished Life: John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963." He was one of the first historians to write extensively about Kennedy's many medical ailments and prescription treatments.
Dallek will surely address these findings and disclosures in today's 4 p.m. lecture entitled "John F. Kennedy: A Reassessment," which is open to the public.
In light of recent explorations into the personal lives of American presidents, Dallek stressed that there are many facets to the politics of personality.
"Personality and the personal side of a president's appeal have always been considerable factors," Dallek said.
Dallek cited charm, wit and the ability to "speak the people's language" as critical characteristics.
Dallek's other works include "Hail to the Chief: the Making and Unmaking of American Presidents," "Franklin D. Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy," his two-volume biography of Johnson, "Lone Star Rising" and "Flawed Giant," and "The American Style of Foreign Policy: Cultural Politics and Foreign Affairs."
Dallek is currently teaching a history seminar on the 20th century American presidency.
A professor at Boston University, Dallek has also taught at Columbia University, University of California Los Angeles and Oxford University. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois, and he received his Ph.D. from Columbia.
