As I examine the daily papers or log onto CNN.com, I am greeted with the news that George W. Bush has apparently recaptured the adoration of the American people and is once again running in a dead heat with Al Gore in the 2000 presidential race. This news comes without a major policy announcement in the last two weeks or a new slew of campaign ads, so how is it that Bush appears to have turned his campaign around? Many would say that it is a result of the positive feedback Bush received from his latest tour of the powder puff talk shows, including Oprah, Regis and Larry King (I am still waiting to see them announce a debate on The Daily Show). Whatever the reason, CNN's daily national tracking poll showed Bush going from 10 points down to three points up in a seven- day period. Since then the same poll has the race back into a tie, with each candidate at 45 percent of those polled. The widely respected Gallup Poll has shown a similar trend. How seriously should we take these numbers? Do national polls accurately reflect the balance of the race or should we be looking for some more convincing evidence?
In attempting to answer this question I had to look no further than one of my own classes. Prof. Lynn Vavreck's Campaigns and Elections class conducted an experiment in which each student was given a state to research. The assignment was to use current polls from that state as well as its voting history to predict which candidate would carry it in November. When all was said and done, Gore trounced Bush in this mock election, 338-200. In addition, even when many of the so-called "swing states" such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania were switched to Bush, Gore still came out with a majority. If a Dartmouth College amateur experiment is not solid enough evidence for you consider this: The National Journal, a political organization, has predicted the Electoral College outcome on their web site, www.nationaljournal.com, and it looks equally dire for Bush. Their numbers, based on the latest polls out of each state, came to 332-198 in favor of Gore, with Arizona being too close to call. So what does this all mean?
First off, it's time for the Bush camp to be concerned. Virtually every state that was considered close or a toss up two weeks ago has now gone to Gore. This includes Florida, in which Bush was expected to do well because the Governor, Jeb Bush, is George W.'s own brother. Relax Bush supporters! It is still too soon to panic or throw in the towel. Most states are still too close to be called "safe" for either candidate at this point. The major battleground states continue to be Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Right now, Gore is polling at least slightly ahead in all of them and has actually built considerable leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. It appears that Bush may have to win all of these states if he has any hope of winning the election. It, therefore, seems unbelievable that Bush could even be running close to Gore in the national polls let alone ahead of him.
The reason Bush is appearing competitive on a national level has to do with the nature of the Electoral College system. In many of the states where Gore is currently polling ahead his lead is only three to 10 percentage points. Notable exceptions are large states like New York and California where he is ahead by 20 and 14 points, respectively. The Electoral College system gives a candidate winning a plurality of the popular vote in a state ALL of that state's electoral votes. This means that even if Gore wins Wisconsin by just one person's vote he receives all 11 electoral votes. The only consequence of the popular vote is to determine who won and who lost a state. The margin of victory is meaningless, so winning by one vote is no different than winning by a million.
The reason Bush may make the popular vote close while losing the electoral vote by a wide margin is because in several states he is polling miles ahead of Gore, thus inflating his national numbers while leaving his electoral vote count unchanged. Bush enjoys a similar lead in many other states in the South, the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains, which constitute the traditional Republican base. The way to win the presidency is the win a lot of states by three to eight percent, not to win a few states by 20. Bush obviously realizes this and will likely be spending considerable time in the closest states from now up until the election, as will his opponent. Both must also be careful, however, not to lose their grip on states that they are supposed to win. At least one poll this week actually shows that Gore's home state of Tennessee may be leaning towards Bush. A Republican victory here would be a major embarrassment for the Vice President, as no candidate has lost his home state in recent memory. On the other hand, traditional Republican strongholds like Nevada and Colorado have been flirting with Gore according to the latest numbers. If Gore eats any more into Bush's base, it won't matter how many swing states the governor gets. So don't get caught up in national polls just yet. The key to this election lies in the candidates' ability to appeal to voters in Florida and the Midwest.