The national spotlight has been focused on New Hampshire every four years since 1920. A whirlwind of national political activity consumes this always charming and usually peaceful state in anticipation of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. Many quaint towns are transformed into headquarters for hordes of satellite trucks and reporters, as well as candidates who set up organizational camps in the Granite State. Depending on how you feel about presidential politics and the way our democracy should work, there are two answers to the question: does N.H. matter?
If you were former N.H. governor Hugh Gregg (who has penned several essays and two books on the N.H. primary) you would probably give a passionate yes to answer the question: does N.H. matter? N.H. is one of the only states in the country where almost anyone can run for president. Provided you can pay the $1000 filing fee, you are a member of a political party recognized in N.H., and you can fulfill the constitutional requirements (being 35 years of age, a natural-born citizen, a resident of the U.S. for 11 years) you can have your name on the ballot in the N.H. primary.
Moreover, a candidate does not necessarily need a lot of money to run in N.H. No one can deny that TV ads play an important role in the presidential campaign, even in N.H. However, N.H. is unique in that there is only one major commercial television station that provides statewide coverage. Where a candidate would have to run one ad with many different stations in a state like California, they can run only one ad in N.H. and be assured access to the entire state. Furthermore, there is one statewide paper and 8 regional dailies for print advertisement and news story coverage.
Because of the compactness of N.H., and the fact that most of the population lives "within a 50-mile wide belt" in the state, candidates can pursue a grassroots campaign that maximizes interaction with voters. For the candidates, the N.H. primary is the political equivalent to Major League Baseball's spring training. Candidates arrive in N.H. months prior to the contest to begin touring and campaigning. They test, refine, and introduce the issues that will define their platform. They learn and perfect their debating skills. They have countless opportunities to press the flesh, to charm the voters, and to develop an image that will inevitably receive attention from the national media.
For the voters, this is an opportunity to test the candidates directly, and it encourages participation in the political process. Cynicism has catalyzed voter apathy evidenced by consistently decreasing voter turnout at the polls. However, the primary season in N.H. creates an environment that lets voters feel engaged. It is not uncommon for candidates to visit local restaurants, businesses, and schools, and even the private homes of N.H. residents. The candidates hold town meetings that allow the people of N.H. to personally interact with the politicians and to see a real side of the people they might ultimately vote for. As Bill Bradley said in a debate held last week at the University of New Hampshire, "I have just finished my forty-sixth town meeting in New Hampshire. It is kind of difficult to be aloof in a N.H. town meeting."
However, many strategists and consultants would answer "no" to the question: does N.H. matter? They question the importance of a contest in a state with a relatively homogenous population of only about 1.1 million people. Furthermore, they question the significance of the N.H. primary given the cramped nature of the primary schedule and the importance of larger, more powerful states. What use to be a process characterized by walking tours and bus tours, and an abundance of voter and candidate interaction, is now dominated by the media, the "spin" of political punditry, large campaign war chests, key endorsements, and extensive use of television advertising.
Candidates like Bill Bradley and John McCain, who need to legitimize their candidacies, increase media attention, and create a momentum for later other big primary contests in New York and California by winning in N.H., this first primary state does indeed matter.
However, the Gore and Bush campaigns, facing potential losses in N.H., would argue that this state does not matter. Both of these candidates have tremendous national recognition and massive national organizations preparing them for contests in the later primary states.
N.H. has not always been accurate in predicting which candidates would ultimately win the nominations. Most recently, in 1996, Pat Buchanan won in N.H., but Bob Dole was ultimately the Republican Party nominee. Perhaps predicting the winner is not was is important. Perhaps what is important is N.H.'s role as a model for the country in preserving the intimate democratic traditions of our country.
