I went to lunch this past Tuesday at the Rockefeller Center. It was one in a series of lunches in which some of us here at Dartmouth meet with some residents from Kendal, a retirement community on Lyme Road, and discuss political and social issues. The aim is to foster some inter-generational common ground on current issues, and to see how different generations view today's world.
I admit to not having given much thought to this country's elderly population and their place in society until I started going to these lunch discussions. I've always had grandparents whom I've visited with and vacationed with, but they have merely seemed to be part of my immediate family, not a part of any socially and politically important group.
Yet the elderly, and their increasing population, are becoming a very important factor in the future of this country.
The statistics tell the story. By the year 2050, at least one-half of this nation's population will be over the age of 39. From the years 2010 to 2030, the elderly population (defined as over the age of 65) in this country will grow by 76 percent, while the number of Americans under the age of 65 will grow by only 6.5 percent. In the 1980s, this nation's elderly population grew at a rate of 22 percent.
Without proper planning and foresight, this trend will have a devastating effect on our nation's national debt, economy and quality of life.
As our nation's population lives longer, it will become increasingly common that people will face the task of caring for their older relatives. This trend will eventually have an economic affect on society, reducing worker productivity and discretionary income, as men and women begin to increasingly provide monetary support for their elder relatives. An aging population will also lead to a decline in the numbers of Americans who make up this country's principle labor force.
Any health care reform that is under investigation by Congress must take the aging of America's population into consideration as well, for increased public outlays for elderly health care will lead to a leap in the amount of the federal budget set aside to pay for these outlays.
Social Security is tied into the aging of America's population, and the ability of the social security trust fund to continue to pay benefits to 92 percent of the elderly (a 1990 figure) is doubtful. In fact, projected figures show the operations of the Social Security and Disability Insurance Account to be in about $2 trillion worth of debt by the year 2050.
These are all issues that must be examined by our political leaders, social leaders and the American public. Only planning, and a recognition that the United States is becoming an aged society, will protect the quality of life of our grandparents, and eventually, our grandchildren.
