Data from the U.S. Census Bureau released last month showed that New Hampshire’s population is aging and its birth rate is declining. From voting patterns to challenges around funding schools, this will have impacts across the state in the years to come. To better understand these changes, The Dartmouth sat down with University of New Hampshire sociology professor Kenneth Johnson.
Johnson serves as a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy at UNH. His research specializes in state and national demographic trends, regional population redistribution and the implications of demographic change for public policy.
Could you provide a breakdown of New Hampshire’s demographic trajectory?
KJ: In New Hampshire — and actually in all three of the northern New England states between 2020 and 2025 — more people died than were born. So all of the population increase in New Hampshire is a function of migration. Although New Hampshire also had immigration — which would be people moving to New Hampshire directly from other countries — the most recent data indicates that New Hampshire’s population gain has been primarily fueled by domestic migration. People are moving to New Hampshire from other places in the United States.
Why are domestic migration rates increasing in New Hampshire while domestic migration to other states in New England has declined?
KJ: Part of it is amenity migration, meaning people are moving here because of the natural environment and its beauty. It’s also because of the outward sprawl of Boston and New Hampshire’s proximity to it: three counties in southern New Hampshire are in the Boston metropolitan area. Like many other big urban areas in the United States, most growth in Boston is occurring around the metropolitan area’s outer edges, and much of it has spilled over into New Hampshire.
What does the fact that deaths in New Hampshire have begun to outpace births say about the state’s population?
KJ: New Hampshire has one of the oldest populations in the United States, and particularly lots of people of the baby boomer era. They’re beginning to reach ages where mortality is quite high, so New Hampshire is experiencing significantly more deaths than it has traditionally. On top of that, COVID was also contributing to additional deaths.
On the other hand, New Hampshire’s population of childbearing-age women is diminishing; New Hampshire has one of the lowest birth rates in the United States. The net result is that there are more deaths occurring than births. That’s widespread in the United States right now; over half of the American counties have more people dying in them than being born.
What are the primary sources of migration and immigration to New Hampshire?
KJ: The biggest source of migrants to New Hampshire is Massachusetts. All the other states pale in comparison to Massachusetts. Almost a quarter of the New Hampshire population was born in Massachusetts. New Hampshire also receives migrants from New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island.
In terms of its immigrants, I believe that New Hampshire gets a fair number of migrants from Asia, and only a very modest number from Hispanic countries. Some, but not very many compared to other parts of the country where the Hispanic migration streams are extremely large.
What social, economic and political challenges do you foresee arising as New Hampshire’s birth rate declines?
KJ: Since the child population is diminishing, there will be challenges revolving around funding schools. Also, as fewer children are being born, the number of maternity wards, delivery centers and hospitals in the state has diminished, making it more challenging for women, especially rural women, to get access to maternity and childcare services. Not everywhere is like Dartmouth, where they’ve got a major medical center right in the middle of town.
On the other hand, with more older individuals, there’s going to be an increasing demand for services for older adults, which can be costly and require significant numbers of trained personnel to address the increasing needs of an aging population.
Which counties in New Hampshire are seeing the most significant population and demographic changes?
KJ: Rural areas are some of the fastest growing counties in the United States, especially ones that have lots of recreational amenities. The fastest growing county in New Hampshire is Carroll County, and the population there has grown mostly by domestic migration. A lot of these are amenity migrants, who either are older and reaching retirement age and have the financial resources to live where they want or have flexible jobs where they can, for example, easily live in New Hampshire and commute to Boston. Coos County, however, the most remote of the rural counties in New Hampshire, has experienced a relatively modest — if any — population change recently, and it’s also mostly driven by migration. And all of the counties in New Hampshire have more deaths than births, except for Hillsborough.
How have population trends in New Hampshire impacted the state’s politics?
KJ: Domestic migrants to New Hampshire and younger voters tend to be less conservative than established and older New Hampshire voters, respectively. Over time, New Hampshire has become a purple state, rather than a red state, which was what it used to be. Migration and natural turnover in the voter pool do affect voting patterns in the state.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
