Presidential competition for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a tough re-election race for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and a safe win for Gov. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., are among the predictions made by the Rockefeller Center’s seventh annual “State of the State Poll,” released today.
The poll, conducted by a random telephone survey the week of April 21, sampled 412 registered state voters.
According to the results, which have a 4.8 percent margin of error, a 2016 presidential election between potential Democratic nominee Clinton and potential Republican nominees Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul would be competitive. When matched against Paul, Clinton received 36 percent of respondents’ support, compared to his 38.4 percent, while the remaining 25.6 percent said they were unsure. Both Huckabee and Christie trailed Clinton’s support by just over 2 percent.
Similarly, the poll found that the New Hampshire Senate race between Shaheen, former Massachusetts Republican senator Scott Brown and former Republican New Hampshire senator Bob Smith is too close to call, falling within the margin of error.
Unlike the respondents’ divided opinions over the presidential and congressional elections, 40 percent indicated support for gubernatorial incumbent Hassan over both Republican candidates Walt Haverstein and Andrew Hemingway, who received about 20 percent each. The remaining 40 percent were unsure of their thoughts on the race.
Public policy professor and survey director Ron Shaiko said Hassan will likely “sail pretty easily into victory,” noting that she has been insulated from the Democratic side.
Shaiko said that while most national political pundits predict Shaheen’s victory, the poll’s results indicate fierce competition from the Republican side.
“If the New Hampshire Senate seat goes Republican, there’s a much greater likelihood that the Republicans will take over the Senate,” Shaiko said. “It’s almost a certainty if Brown wins.”
College Republicans president Michelle Knesbach ’17 said in an email that Shaheen’s support of the Affordable Care Act upset many New Hampshire residents.
College Democrats declined to comment, president Spencer Blair ’17 said.
The New Hampshire gubernatorial and congressional elections will both occur in November.
This year’s poll showed that President Barack Obama’s approval dropped from 45 to 36 percent over the past year.
The poll also asked about statewide issues, from the decriminalization of marijuana to voter photo identification requirements, sexual orientation discrimination policies and the death penalty. Opinions on most topics were divided along party lines.
While 59.9 percent of Democrats indicated support for decriminalizing marijuana, 52 percent of Republicans were opposed. Only 17.8 percent of respondents opposed a state constitutional amendment to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation, with most opposition coming from Republicans.
Significant support for requiring the display of photo identification to vote in New Hampshire elections was found across party lines, which Shaiko said was one of the poll’s most surprising results.
Over two dozen students from government professor Deborah Brooks’s “Polling, Public Opinion and Public Policy” class helped write the poll’s questions and conduct interviews. Students will present the results to State Sen. David Pierce, D-Etna, in class today.
Alex Wasdahl ’16, a student in Brooks’s class, said he thought the poll’s results reflected that people do not have confidence in the nation’s current economy.
No respondents described the national economy as “excellent” and 82 percent said it was “fair” or “poor.” Positive perceptions, however, showed a slight uptick from last year.
Wasdahl said polling gave him a “taste of the Granite State.” While some respondents wanted to justify every answer, others, he said, yelled at him.
The survey included 46 questions and took about 10 minutes to complete. Although the participants’ average age was above that of New Hampshire’s registered voter population, the results were weighted to reflect this disparity.
Blair is a member of The Dartmouth opinion staff.
