The first caucuses and primaries "send an important signal to the electorate," government professor Joseph Bafumi said. Although the New Hampshire primary was originally schedule for Feb. 14, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner announced Wednesday in a press conference at the state capitol building that the date was moved up to Jan. 10 so that New Hampshire would continue to be the nation's first primary.
Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., is the consistent frontrunner in New Hampshire polls, with former CEO of Godfather's pizza Herman Cain and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, polling as the number two and three contenders, respectively. Cain leads national polls while Romney is a close second and Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, leads in third place, according to Real Clear Politics, a website that provides political news and analysis on polling data.
Bafumi attributed Romney's popularity in New Hampshire to his role as the former governor of a neighboring state and the fact that he owns a house in New Hampshire. Romney has also invested a substantial amount of time campaigning in the area, and has benefitted from endorsements by New Hampshire politicians such as Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., and former Gov. John Sununu, R-N.H.
"Maybe it's not a question of what's wrong with Cain," Bafumi said. "What's going on in New Hampshire might be what's right about Romney in New Hampshire."
Nyhan said that despite Cain's prominence in national polls, Romney is the most likely choice for the Republican nomination, and will likely win the New Hampshire primary.
A key element of candidates' strategies is their decision as to where they can compete most effectively, Nyhan said. Romney spends more time campaigning in New Hampshire than other candidates because he believes he can win among the moderate Republicans and Independents, Nyhan said.
"Rick Perry is certainly coming here to campaign, but he's certainly putting an emphasis on primaries in the South, where he could be expected to do better," Nyhan said.
Perry spokesperson Katherine Cesinger said Perry's campaign recognizes the importance of the New Hampshire primary and will continue to spend time in the area in the upcoming weeks.
"Winning the nomination means earning the trust and support of voters in each of these states," Cesinger said in an interview with The Dartmouth.
Although he is not considered a frontrunner for the GOP nomination, former Gov. John Huntsman, R-Utah, has hosted nearly 100 campaign events in New Hampshire and will continue to meet with state citizens until the primary, according to campaign spokesman Michael Levoff.
"New Hampshire is our top priority," Levoff said in an interview with The Dartmouth. "It will allow us the head of steam we need to go through South Carolina and Florida to win the Republican nomination."
The New Hampshire campaign team of Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., officially disbanded, according to an Oct. 23 press release. Karen Testerman, the team's former senior adviser, said the team's departure will have a large effect on Bachmann's national campaign. Many political experts question whether Bachmann will remain a candidate for much longer.
"You cannot skip this state," Testerman said in an interview with The Dartmouth, citing the success of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in New Hampshire in 2000, which led to his nomination in 2008.
Bachmann's New Hampshire team disbanded due to lack of communication with Bachmann's national campaign, which failed to explain the campaign strategy and took key members of the New Hampshire group off payroll, according to Testerman. Her team could no longer tolerate the behavior of the national campaign, Testerman said. The New Hampshire campaign group's frustrations were amplified by an incident in which a senior official in the national campaign took a sign out of a supporter's hand because it was homemade, she said. Testerman would not divulge the senior official's name.
"I think [Bachmann] is falling off the charts basically, much to many people's disappointment," she said.
Testerman said Bachmann's fading popularity can be attributed to the national team's inaction in New Hampshire.
"The national team has decided that they do not need to play heavy in New Hampshire, and they have also decided that they cannot win in New Hampshire," she said. "They underestimated their candidate. She had much potential to win in this state."
If Bachmann had visited New Hampshire a few more times, she might have held on to her frontrunner status that she achieved after winning the Ames, Iowa, straw poll in August, Testerman said.
Bafumi said he was not surprised by Bachmann's difficulties in the state.
"Her campaign has been falling apart for a while now," he said. "I think she lost fire a long time ago."
Although Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is currently ranked eighth in New Hampshire polls, his campaign team is still hopeful for a positive outcome in the primary, according to Mike Biundo, Santorum's national campaign manager. The campaign recently hired additional representatives in New Hampshire to build momentum, he said in an interview with The Dartmouth.
"We're going to continue to put in the time and effort that a state like New Hampshire deserves," Biundo said. "We have this ability to surprise the pundits in the state. Someone who you're not expecting to be the frontrunner wins the New Hampshire primary. We've seen it happen over and over again."
Santorum will be in New Hampshire most of next week, according to Biundo.
"He's going to be a frequent visitor to the Granite State, and you can expect to see him here often," Biundo said. "Of course we're looking for the Jan. 10 day as something that's going to be extremely important role to this campaign. New Hampshire's played a very important role in this process, and it's going to continue to play an important role in this process going forward."
Campaign representatives for Bachmann, Cain, Paul, Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., could not be reached for comment by press time.
