New Hampshire residents showed concern about the state economy and a growing dissatisfaction with elected officials in the third annual "State of the State Poll" conducted in late April by students involved with the Rockefeller Center Policy Research Shop. The preliminary results of the poll, which surveyed 406 registered New Hampshire voters about their opinions on health care, the state and national economy and the performance of elected officials, were released in mid-May.
As they had in 2009, New Hampshire residents identified the need to strengthen the state economy as their top policy concern. Respondents were more concerned about the state's budget difficulties this year than last year, with 42.9 percent calling the budget problems "very serious," compared to last year's 28.7 percent. New Hampshire faces a predicted $220 million budget gap for the 2010-2011 fiscal year, according to WMUR news.
Over 55 percent of respondents said they supported the expansion of gambling, including legalizing video slot machines and casinos, as a possible source of income to help alleviate the budget crisis.
The respondents expressed increased dissatisfaction with elected officials this year over last year. Approval ratings for Democratic Governor John Lynch who will run for an unprecedented fourth term this fall fell by 11.8 percentage points to 54.1 percent, the poll found. Lynch's lower approval ratings "appear to be connected with the state budget situation," according to Rockefeller Center postdoctoral fellow David Glick.
A plurality of respondents 45.8 percent said they were "unsure" of the New Hampshire legislature's job performance, while 31.2 percent expressed disapproval.
Voters expressed similar dissatisfaction with Rep. Paul Hodes, D-N.H., when questioned about the Congressional election in November. Hodes is running for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who is not running for re-election. The poll presented hypothetical races between Hodes and his likely Republican opponents, former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and businessmen Bill Binnie.
In both hypothetical situations, the majority of respondents chose the Republican candidate over Hodes.
"Since a significant number of the respondents were unsure about election results, [these findings are] far from a forgone conclusion in terms of the November elections," said Alex Mahler-Haug '11, who analyzed the data from the poll.
Approval ratings for Gregg and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., were consistent with last year's, hovering around 43 percent for Gregg and 34 percent for Shaheen. Voters were divided on President Barack Obama's job performance, with 45.1 percent approving, 42.8 percent disapproving and 12.1 percent saying they were "unsure."
Respondents were also split on the recent health care reform legislation, with 43.7 percent reporting they supported the reform while 44.4 percent said they opposed it. The level of emphasis placed on health care as a state policy issue decreased, according to Mahler-Haug. In 2010, 5.7 percent of poll respondents named health care as a top priority for state policy-makers, compared with 15.1 percent in 2009. The recent national health care legislation may have stopped respondents from seeing health care as a top state responsibility, according to a preliminary analysis of the poll.
Questions included in the poll often reflect the research students conduct in the Policy Research Shop, Mahler-Haug said. This year's poll included questions about renewable energy to provide data for a Policy Research Shop report for the state legislature, which Mahler-Haug co-wrote.
"The research is driven by politicians themselves," survey administrator Serena Laws said. "Students get to participate in these very live issues relevant to the policy process itself. It's a way to be engaged and do something with practical relevance, and is a great research tool for students."
Students enrolled in Public Policy 45, which serves as a prerequisite to work in the Policy Research Shop, will conduct further in-depth analysis of the poll's findings. Rockefeller Center associate director Ronald Shaiko, who directed the survey, will oversee the class.
