Another college football season, another year of intense unpredictability and confusion in the polls? It's amazing to think, after witnessing the singularity of last year's season relative to past seasons in this respect, that we could be in store for a repeat of 2007, but what's to say it isn't going to happen based on the action so far? Top teams have been falling at a similar rate, and no team is even close to distinguishing themselves enough to be labeled a "sure bet" for the title game. With that said, Ryan and I thought a wild stab at predicting this year's title winner would be fun. Here's my run down:
Picking this year's winner, in light of how the season looks like it will shape up, is no easy task. Prior to the season, I think it was certainly safe to say that no team for the Big-10 could be seriously considered as a threat to go all the way. The conference's impotence in the biggest games against the best competition had been on display a few times over the past few years (see: Rose Bowl '04,'07,'08 and NC '07,'08), and it took but a couple weeks of this regular season for a highly ranked team from the conference to dither in the face of a superior opponent on the national stage once again. That superior opponent, in this particular instance, was a USC team that got upset a week later by a 1-2 Oregon State squad, making Ohio State's performance against USC all the more revealing. I will concede that Penn State has looked impressive thus far and lurks with a 5-0 record at No. 6 in both polls, but barring an absolutely dominant week-by-week running of the table, the much-deserved negative stigma that surrounds Big-10 football in the media will be enough to keep them out of the title hunt.
With the whole Big-10 eliminated, the pick doesn't get that much easier to make. Prior to this past weekend, USC was the consensus No. 1, most still believed Georgia was worthy of their high rank in the polls, and no one thought Florida would fall to Ole Miss. None of those three teams are by any means mathematically eliminated from the title race as a result of their losses, but it's a pretty safe bet to eliminate the possibility of Georgia or Florida braving the remainder of their brutal conference schedules unscathed, which is what it will probably require to make it to the promised land. Georgia, despite having the nation's most talented natural runner, simply doesn't have enough offensive clout. Florida, meanwhile, is looking a lot less rhythmic on offense than last year and must face LSU next week. The Trojans have by far the easiest schedule of the three and probably are the most well rounded to boot. They definitely could run the table, but I just can't pull the trigger and label them a title contender. The offense is rife with weapons, but lacks the punch and consistent "instant" ability that Trojan teams of yesteryear used to power their way to lopsided wins and title game appearances.
Eliminating those three teams, that leaves us with a few Big-12 teams and two SEC squads. I respect these five teams more than any Pac-10 or Big-10 team in this debate simply because their regular-season schedules are more difficult and they have to shoulder the added burden of playing a super-competitive conference championship game. Hopefully, the pollsters will realize this and march to the beat of the same drummer. Given the SEC's success over the past couple years, and the fact that LSU and 'Bama have had a more difficult road than their Big-12 counterparts this season, I decided the SEC was the safest choice. LSU is 4-0, but looks vulnerable in the long run. The Tigers skated by an offensively challenged Auburn team, and are clearly missing Glenn Dorsey on the interior.
In the end, I'm going to go with Alabama. Nick Saban proved with LSU that he can take over a program and quickly take it to the next level. His second year in Baton Rouge yielded a 10-3 record, an SEC championship, and Sugar Bowl victory. Despite taking over a Tide squad that was in worse shape than LSU was when he took the reins there in 2000, Saban already has his team in national-championship shape. The Tide kicked off their season by holding high-powered Clemson to just 10 points, and acquitted themselves brilliantly in dismantling Georgia on Saturday. The score might have been 41-30, which, on the surface, seems to qualify as relatively close game, but the outcome was really never in question. The Tide jumped out to a 31-point lead in the first half, and the score was 41-17 deep into the fourth quarter before Georgia racked up a couple of TD's that were purely, as an Associated Press article aptly put it, "cosmetic."
