With "Dreamgirls" out of contention (sabotaged by Dreamworks/Paramount's shameless pimping?), this is the most open Best Picture race in years. Thanks to its feel-good momentum leading up to awards season -- not to mention a hilarious take on cheeky senior citizens, which I think will snag Alan Arkin an Oscar, if only because Hollywood hates Eddie Murphy -- "Little Miss Sunshine" is my pick to upset critical darling "The Departed" for BP. Let's just hope the Academy doesn't go all "Crash" on us and award top honors to the overrated, self-important ensemble flick of the bunch ... ahem, "Babel."
P.S. -- Note to the Academy: We get it. Dench and Streep are good. Stop nominating them. No, really.
-Allison Ruderman
What's wrong with the Best Actor category this year? Forest Whitaker is fine in "The Last King of Scotland," but he's in the movie for about 20 minutes. "Venus" is a charming little film, but I can't shake the suspicion that if Peter O'Toole were anybody other than Peter O'Toole, nobody would have given his performance a second look. Will Smith got paid $20 million to portray an impoverished lifestyle that he obviously knows nothing about in "The Pursuit of Happyness," and Leonardo DiCaprio hides a mediocre performance behind a rat's nest of facial hair in "Blood Diamond." None of these performances deserve to stand in a room with Ryan Gosling, but thanks to the actor's disdain for media attention and "Half Nelson's" half-hearted publicity campaign, he doesn't stand a chance of winning the award he deserves.
-A.J. Fox
With the lead acting categories both foregone conclusions, I'm looking to the supporting categories for upsets, particularly on the distaff side. Here's why: Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza will split the "Babel" vote and cancel each other out. However great Cate Blanchett was this year, she recently won for "The Aviator" and voters will feel that it's too soon to give her another award. That leaves Jennifer Hudson and Abigail Breslin. Until recently, Hudson seemed like a lock and many pundits will say she still is. I'm less convinced. "Little Miss Sunshine" has the momentum, and there seems to be more shock than sadness over the omission of "Dreamgirls" from the Best Picture category. Anna Paquin was pre-pubescent when she won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for "The Piano," so Breslin's youth doesn't ruin her chances. Breslin can take it.
-Zach Swiss
Despite the strong list of nominees this year, a few winners have already been recognized as "dead locks." Most notably, Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker have racked up a formidable list of awards in the past few months -- all deservingly, despite exceptional competition. Martin Scorsese has also filled up his mantle in recent weeks, though on less concrete grounds. Scorsese has become a shoo-in for the Best Director award this year simply because he's gone so long (six nominations, no wins) without an Oscar. Now don't get me wrong -- I love the guy and his work, and "The Departed" was solidly entertaining -- but to give someone an Academy Award because it's "about time" goes against the purpose of said recognition. To hand the award over to Scorsese would be an insult to his brilliant competition. Wait for your honorary Oscar, Marty -- or direct something singularly deserving of a little gold man.
-Joseph DeBonis
It's a few days until Sunday and I'm already sick of the Oscars this year. I know, I know, Forrest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson will win. Martin Scorsese will finally get his moment. The Departed versus Babel? Yawn.
I've got my fingers crossed that the Academy is as fed up with the emerging media-blog spoiler culture as I am and picks some deserving underdogs, like Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson," or the "Pan's Labyrinth" screenplay. Hey, they shoved "Dreamgirls" in a drawer, right? More drama, please! And if the Academy decides not to comply, well, at least Tom Cruise is presenting. Pass the popcorn.
