Imagine that it is early 2008 and the presidential primaries are in full swing. Iowa and New Hampshire are, however briefly, the centers of national media attention. In the Democrat column, the choice is clear: Hillary or Obama. Both have their strengths, both have their weaknesses. This Democratic primary will undoubtedly be a fascinating contest. But perhaps the more dramatic primary to watch will be the Republicans' because it holds out the possibility for something radical to occur: the creation of a legitimate third party. How could this happen? Here is the possible scenario.
On Saturday, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback officially entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination. The senator advocates policies of the religious right and is a signatory on the anti-gay marriage amendment. He has also supported or been a signatory on virtually all anti-abortion measures to come before the Senate in his tenure. These are certainly hot-button issues that, as recent elections have shown, motivate a demographic mostly comprised of evangelical Christian voters and dictate their voting patterns. However, despite the power of these issues over voters, and despite their recent alignment with the Republican party, congressional Republicans have failed to push through substantial pieces of legislation to change federal policy on them. Abortion is still legal in certain states, New Jersey is currently deciding whether to grant gay couples full marital status and stem-cell research is going strong in California thanks to state funds. Suffice it to say, real change remains but an idea.
Against this backdrop, Brownback is running for the Republican presidential nomination. While the party may decide to fully play to the religious portion of their tent, chances are that they will be wary to put up such a divisive candidate and will opt for a more mainstream candidate like Sen. John McCain from Arizona or former New York Mayor Rudy Guilliani. So, let us suppose that Brownback does not get the nod for president or vice president. What then? Will he just retreat to his corner and count his losses? Or, motivated by political statisticians' claim that 30 percent of the electorate are evangelical voters who vote their faith, will he seize upon an opportunity to create a new party where issues such as gay-marriage and abortion are not accommodations to capture a base, but defining hallmarks?
Think about where many evangelical Christian voters currently, and precariously, sit. They want to end abortions but not environmental regulations; they are tired of a war instigated by a Republican president; they have a hard time reconciling tax cuts for the wealthy with the Christian notion of charity; they don't support gay marriage but also don't support wire-tapping; they are sympathetic to authors like David Kuo who skeptically question just how earnestly Republicans support Christianity and Christian causes. In many instances, we see evangelical voters forced to straddle a fence in order to reconcile their beliefs and attitudes with the conduct of their party. But what if they had to straddle a fence no longer? What if a third party came along, spearheaded by Brownback and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, that offered this section of the voting populace assurances that their issues would truly and, in all senses of the word, faithfully be brought to the forefront of political discussion. In short, in voting for the third party, Christians could better vote their faith.
This scenario may not be a probability, but it is certainly a possibility. When a notable swath of the voting population finds itself disagreeing with both parties and having an ambitious leader, the jump out of an old party and into a new begins to look less and less hypothetical. And though many on both sides may see this as a frightening possibility, I believe that if this were this to occur, a more honest political climate could be created: Democrats could remain Democrats without be forced into discussions of faith. Republicans may be able to turn away from this bizarre Rovian hybrid of neo-conservatism and evangelism towards a more traditional conservatism of responsible spending by a small government. Evangelicals will be allowed to push their social agenda without being co-opted into voting for irresponsible wars and reckless government spending. Who knows? A third party could be exactly what America needs.
