With Republican frontrunner George W. Bush in Dallas attending an awards ceremony for his wife, five other Republican candidates will vie for much-needed national attention at tonight's town meeting in Moore Theater.
Senators John McCain and Orrin Hatch, magazine magnate Steve Forbes, conservative activist Gary Bauer and talk show host Alan Keyes will all be on hand tonight to field questions from New Hampshire residents in Moore Theater.
An opportunity for McCain
Bush's absence could set the stage for a positive boost to McCain, who is currently in second place for the Republican nomination behind Bush in most national polls.
A Research 2000 survey released last weekend by the Concord Monitor showed Bush retaining his front-runner status with 39 percent of the vote in the Granite state, but McCain in a solid second place with 27 percent.
"McCain is in a unique spot. If he can do well and leave the forum with even a small increase in favorability, he will get a huge amount of momentum to be a challenger to Bush," government Professor Lynn Vavreck -- who specializes in campaigns and the media -- said.
Whether McCain can narrow Bush's lead heading into the New Hampshire primary is one of the key features of tonight's forum.
Vavreck noted the public is looking for a challenger, and McCain is the best suited to serve that role.
According to Government Professor Constantine Spiliotes, McCain will not need to harp on Bush's absence.
"McCain can get his message out and let the other candidates who aren't doing as well criticize Bush," he said.
The rest of the pack
While the town meeting will be important for attracting voters for all candidates, lesser known challengers such as Hatch, Keyes and Bauer appeal to limited constituencies.
According to Vavreck, these candidates have an upper limit of support while Forbes and McCain seem able to draw from several different groups.
Forbes is considered the wild card in this race because his personal wealth can be channeled into effective advertising and campaigning.
A strong Forbes advertising campaign against Bush could indirectly benefit McCain.
According to Spiliotes, this would be a similar situation to the 1996 Presidential race when former Senator Bob Dole's support was weakened by Forbes' strong advertising, Spiliotes said.
"For them, it's a forum to influence the dialogue of the campaign, but it will not make much of a difference for them except to increase their name recognition a bit," Spiliotes said.
Different nights, different dynamics
As for the differences between last night and tonight, a larger field of candidates will present a sequence of statements rather than a back and forth dialogue as seen last night.
Spiliotes also said Bush's absence will make people feel like more was at stake last night than tonight.
Despite campus rumors that Bush will make a last-minute appearance at the town meeting, a Bush spokesperson confirmed yesterday that he will be in Dallas where his wife is to be the recipient of the Southern Methodist University Distinguished Alumni award.
Bush, however, will be attending a debate with all Republican candidates on December 2 at the WMUR-TV news studios in Manchester. News Director of WMUR Karen Brown and Nightline anchor Ted Koppel will moderate the event, which will be televised from 8 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Candidates' plans
Many of the candidates will be staying in Hanover for only a short while today. Senator Hatch plans to arrive at around 6 p.m., and will meet an estimated 25 students at a rally outside of the Hanover Inn, Spencer Jones '00 said. Jones and Gabby Garcia '01 are the student campaign coordinators.
Hatch will then travel to Concord where his state headquarters are scheduled to officially open on Friday morning.
"Because of his position in the Senate, Hatch doesn't have time to campaign, so it's exciting for him to get his feelings about the issues out in front of a national audience so more people will know where he stands," Jones said.
McCain will descend upon Hanover in the late afternoon after spending the day in other parts of New Hampshire. A rally near the Hopkins Center is scheduled from 5:30 p.m. until the debate starts.
Student coordinator of McCain's campaign Collin O'Mara '01 said he hopes 200 or more students will attend the rally. Following the forum, supporters are invited to a catered reception at Everything But Anchovies restaurant.
"He's scheduled to spend a few hours mingling with students. He was impressed with Dartmouth students from his conversations last weekend, and that influenced him to stay longer," O'Mara said of McCain's visit to Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity last Saturday.
A Forbes reception will begin at 6:15 p.m. in 28 Silsby Hall. A rally will then migrate to the Hop in anticipation of Forbes' 6:30 arrival, a Forbes campaign coordinator Matt Raymer '03 said.
Forbes will also make an appearance after the forum in 28 Silsby to meet students.
The Forbes campaign, which is highly Internet-based, has been rather quiet on campus.
