In what some are predicting could be a costly campaign move, Texas Governor George W. Bush will not be attending the October 28 town meeting at Dartmouth for candidates in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The New York Times reported Friday that Bush has decided not to appear with his Republican challengers, Arizona Senator John McCain, Elizabeth Dole, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Pat Buchanan and Gary Bauer at the forum, viewed as a precursor to the New Hampshire primary scheduled for February 1.
The town meeting will be broadcast live from Moore Theater by WMUR in Manchester and CNN.
Government Professor Linda Fowler said she feels this is a risky strategy for Bush.
"New Hampshire voters have a long history of upsetting front-runners," Fowler said. "If New Hampshire voters get the idea Bush isn't taking it seriously, they could react in a fairly predictable, unfavorable fashion."
Fowler also said Bush has a reputation as a weak debater and a candidate that is not good on his feet in front of an audience.
Doing poorly at a televised town meeting early in the race could hurt his campaign, she said.
Fowler said Bush has been sticking to a "scripted public persona" on the campaign trail and that soon he will be confronted by press on that tactic.
Stories could be generated about Bush being afraid to confront the other Republican candidates or not being able to speak for himself, Fowler said.
Bush has to weigh "the risk of doing badly versus the risk of angering the New Hampshire electorate," she said.
However, Fowler said that even without Bush attending, the town meeting will generate attention for the other candidates.
Bush's absence will help McCain and Dole, who will be elevated to front-runner status among the candidates who are there.
McCain and Dole will have the event to themselves, Fowler said.
"It's good for them not to have to share the limelight," she said.
Chris Dreisbach '00, a member of Bush's Dartmouth Steering Committee, said he feels that should Bush not attend the town meeting, Dartmouth students would be disappointed.
However, he said he feels Bush's level of support in New Hampshire will not fall.
Dreisbach said Bush has done a thorough job campaigning in the state. "Anyone who has wanted to meet the governor has or will have had the chance to do so," he said.
Bush's campaign press secretary could not be reached for comment.
