President Bill Clinton has nowhere to go in 1996. The man who played his saxophone on the now-canceled "Arsenio Hall Show" and romanced Generation X on MTV during his first presidential campaign convinced the majority of voters that he would solve the nation's domestic problems, a task seemingly insurmountable to a haggard-looking George Bush -- and in 1993 he replaced Bush as our nation's chief executive.
Victory in 1996 will not be as easy because the promise of domestic reform that worked for Clinton in 1992 no longer has potential. Forget the failure of health care or other unfulfilled campaign promises, the real threat Clinton faces is the new Congress. By submitting his own balanced budget, Clinton effectively approved the basic course of the domestic agenda as proposed by House Republicans -- the Contract With America.
Incumbent presidents can advertise their experience or accomplishments as world leaders if their domestic position is weak. But Clinton's handling of foreign affairs has not earned him a place in the heart of the international community. Take Bosnia, for example. Joe Klein, writing in Newsweek, states Clinton has been "a constant kibitzer, trying to influence Balkan policy without making a real commitment."
Well, give the man a break. He has to take a poll before deciding his course of action. A "Western diplomat" quoted in the article had some good advice for Clinton regarding the effect of Clinton's handling of the Bosnian situation: "If I were Clinton, I'd get rolling [on the campaign trail] now."
The final nail in the coffin for Clinton is the Reverend Jesse Jackson. Jackson represents the traditional commitment to affirmative action, urban policy and social programs, a commitment Clinton has all but abandoned in his efforts to cooperate with the new Republican majority.
Jackson, though currently not seeking the presidency, has enough influence to detract a good portion of voters who have lost faith in Clinton's ability to provide leadership for the Democratic party. It is unlikely that Clinton will lose the Democratic nomination, but this does not mitigate the threat posed by Jackson as a third party candidate.
Jackson is in an excellent position to run as a third party candidate for two main reasons. First, Clinton has lost party faith. Consider the general feelings of current Democratic leadership, as expressed in a recent Wall Street Journal article. Rep. Joseph Kennedy (D-Mass.) feels that "the Clinton administration, the Clinton Republicans, ought to be ashamed." Jackson himself commented that he has "warm feelings toward Bill Clinton [but] he's made some moves that have exposed him." If Clinton makes many more concessions to the Republicans, Jackson will likely enter the race.
Second, the Republican party is plagued by infighting. The Republicans have not yet decided how and if the party can incorporate the guidelines of the Christian Coalition into its party platform. If the Coalition votes en bloc for its own candidate, the Republican majority might find its ranks dwindling. Further, those remaining voters who are not in the Coalition might very happily support a Newt Gingrich, Phil Gramm or Pete Wilson and leave heir-apparent Bob Dole with little support.
In this worst-case scenario for the Republican party, Clinton might just nab victory. But if Jackson or even Colin Powell were to run, Clinton would lose the slight margin afforded to him by the Republican infighting.
Further, if the Republicans were to settle on the nomination of Dole paired with a more liberal Republican vice-presidential candidate, especially a woman such as New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman, the equation would change significantly. The Christian Coalition voting bloc would be negligible because many voters, Republican and Democrat, would be attracted to such a combination.
Clinton's only hope for re-election is either the disintegration of the Republican party or the public endorsement of Democratic leaders such as Jackson. When the media onslaught arrives with the New Hampshire primaries in February, Clinton will enter the battle severely handicapped. He embarks upon the 1996 campaign already on the defensive, a position which leaves him no place to go but back to Arkansas.
