On Super Bowl Sunday, not only will the fortunes of the Chargers and Forty-Niners be decided, but so will a large influence on the Republican Party. Jack Kemp, the former director of Housing and Urban Development under President Bush, and longtime Buffalo, N.Y. Congressman, says that the "feeling" he gets from his annual Super Bowl party will decide his presidential aspirations.
The situation is almost Reagan-esque. Kemp, the former all-pro quarterback, is a bit of a showman, just like his actor turned president patriarch. And like Reagan, Kemp may be the renaissance and savior for his party.
During the '80s, Kemp was considered a conservative glam-man. A tough minded budget cutter and tax fighter in the House, he was thought to have a bright future as a presidential candidate.
But then Kemp became head of HUD, and the experience changed his political outlook.
He visited inner city projects and could not help but envision new policies for urban renewal. He saw the faces living in federal housing and could not help but think of integrating multi-racial concerns into his party's platform. Liberal's had the '60s, Kemp had HUD.
While Kemp went through his cognitive metamorphosis, his party shifted as well. The early '90s saw a dramatic rise in power by the highly influential "religious right." Their source of power came from grass roots community organizations. They started with PTA's, moved to school boards, then to town boards and now in certain states, have influential control over state politics.
It all makes for an interesting scenario for the '96 GOP nomination and Presidential race. Voters that turn out in state primary elections, called the primary constituency, are traditionally more conservative than the average voter in general elections. Today, with the added weight of the religious right, the primary constituencies' appetite for conservative candidates and platforms has increased.
The result is a predominance of GOP candidates who have made bedfellows with the religious right. They include the highly visible Dan Quayle and Phil Gramm. Even hard-nosed Bob Dole has assumed the role of chameleon, and has adopted some religious right demands.
These candidates structure their message and their image in order to win the party's nomination, but in the end, what will be the consequence for the GOP? One can easily predict a party platform in '96 that, because of its uncompromising conservatism, is unpalatable to the general electorate. Such a move to the far right by the GOP is Clinton's greatest hope for re-election.
But should Kemp decide to run, he may play the role of Republican savior. Kemp is bold and visible enough to draw his fellow candidates back to the center. As his policy proposals on poverty, urban renewal and party racial integration gain acclaim and coverage from a liberally minded, policy wonk-liking media, his opponents will have to respond.
Perhaps Kemp can be the GOP equivalent of Perot. In '92, the Texas billionaire gave voice to the balanced budget push, a topic that Clinton never wanted to touch. In '96, Kemp could add elements to the GOP platform otherwise left unconsidered.
Unfortunately, the same elements that Kemp has the ability to undo may keep him from running. He realizes the stream of conservatism has passed him by. Once the glam-man, he is now a discarded '80s prototype. With this passage comes a lack of money from conservative PACs and interest groups. Left to sit idly at a think tank in Washington, Kemp seems like a poor investment to monied interests looking for political return.
But maybe Jack Kemp, will decide to take on the odds, risk his potential to run in future years and realize that he can be the savior of his party. On Super Bowl Sunday, there's a much larger game at stake.
