Tommy Dickie -- This was a year in which almost every film that should have been great (including all five best picture nominees) was only good. I have yet to see "Hotel Rwanda," but I still believe there were only three great films this year: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," "Kill Bill: Vol. 2" and "A Very Long Engagement" -- all sadly underappreciated by the Academy. I'm one of few who didn't love "Million Dollar Baby," and I'm praying Eastwood doesn't win -- Scorsese desrves an Oscar at last! But "Aviator" was nothing special, so my psycho Oscar-obsessed soul is not depressed that "Baby" is passing it as Best Picture front-runner.
Brendon Bouzard -- I'm kind of grumpy about having to choose some of what I chose for the "Should Win" slots, mostly because I don't think anything nominated should win. Instead of announcing the Oscar nominees, AMPAS should have postponed the awards for a year in the hope that 2005's crop would be better than 2004's. "The Aviator" is Martin Scorsese on autopilot, desperately throwing together all those disparate elements he thinks Oscar-winning movies are all about in the hopes that he'll finally walk away with an award he should have gotten for movies he made over a decade and a half ago. "Ray" is a fantastic Ray Charles impersonation thrown into a laughable third-rate biopic. "Finding Neverland" is a staid, lifeless drama about the power of fantasy. "Million Dollar Baby" was one of the few movies this year that tried my suspension of disbelief, between its ultra-low production values and its women's-boxing-as-WWE fight sequences. Finally, "Sideways" is pretty much the ultimate cliche: a buddy-comedy-road movie about a shy introverted loner learning to accept himself from his horndog alpha-male friend. I'll give you a hint: "Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle" had that exact same plot outline and did it better.
Meredith Fraser -- It is a well-known fact in Hollywood that if a studio wants its film to be seriously considered for an Oscar, they wait until the end of the year for its release. It's one of the Academy's notorious flaws -- anything released before fall gets screwed. This year, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" is the victim.
Winslet's Best Actress nomination and Charlie Kaufman's original screenplay nod were industry surprises -- which in itself is ridiculous. They should have been sure things from the beginning. Winslet has no chance, as Swank should take it, with Bening and Staunton close behind in the vote count -- which again, is ridiculous, seeing that arguably the most talented actress in the business keeps getting utterly shafted by the Academy. However, as a writer myself, I'm sincerely hoping that the voters clear Charlie Kaufman a path to the stage and award the man responsible for such an original, beautiful and poignant film.
Matt Hill -- This year's Best Picture race is the tightest it's been in years. While "The Aviator" was way out front about a month ago, "Million Dollar Baby" has been gaining so much steam in the last few weeks -- due in large part to the enormous emotional impact of its controversial third act -- that it may ultimately deal "The Aviator" a knockout punch. While it's still entirely possible that the Howard Hughes biopic will take the big statue home (for itself and for Marty), I'm betting that voters will go with their hearts and be swayed to MDB's side of the ring. The race may even be so close that a voter's split between "Aviator" and "Baby" could allow that little train that could, "Sideways," to sneak in unnoticed and take the grand prize. But I would bet on the boxing movie.
Lindsay Barnes -- For the love of Alice Hyatt, Jake LaMotta and Tommy DeVito will somebody please give Martin Scorsese an Oscar?! Now I realize rooting for Scorsese to win Best Director is kind of like rooting for Mars to beat Mercury in a race around the sun, but what has one of America's great filmmakers got to do to win for once? Cher has an Oscar for goodness sake! "The Aviator" may not be the best he's ever made and "Million Dollar Baby" is far and away the best film of 2004, but "The Aviator" is an example of what makes Scorsese great -- his ability to use stunning imagery to accent, not drown out, a story of raw human drama.
Caroline McKenzie -- When I say, "Hilary Swank should win for Best Actress," I really mean to say, "Anyone but Annette Bening." The Best Actress group is definitely the most diverse and fascinating category this year, but I fear the most bland diva will snag it. Since Swank rightly won for "Boys Don't Cry" and rendered Bening the only member of the "American Beauty" ensemble that didn't take home a statue, it seems unlikely that the same miracle will happen again. But Swank and Imelda Staunton are the most deserving members of the group. They both turned in heart-rending, nuanced performances that created intimate portraits of characters you cared about and impossibly rooted for until the end. I wish they could share the award and clonk Bening over the head with it.
