On Sept. 3, former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu posted a cryptic tweet on his unverified, obscure X page: “Don’t call it a comeback…” The post linked to a Politico article reporting that the former senator is weighing a run for Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. Could Sununu, a member of a powerful New Hampshire political family, be tacitly confirming his intention to run? Although his gambit for the Senate seat may seem out of the blue, he might just be the best candidate for the job if he positions himself as a firmly anti-Trump Republican.
Sununu, who lost this seat in the Senate to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, isn’t the obvious candidate for the GOP. His brother, Chris, was widely expected to run for the seat and was even coaxed by President Donald Trump to do so. (Chris declined earlier this year.) While a well-respected governor, Chris has proved politically cautious. He originally held Trump responsible for the Jan. 6 insurrection, but backtracked when he endorsed him last year after his first pick, Nikki Haley, failed to gain momentum in the GOP primaries.
John, however, proved himself to be a man of at least some consistent principles. He declined to endorse Trump even after Haley faltered. In fact, he penned an op-ed in January of last year in the New Hampshire Union Leader with a title as subtle as a sledgehammer: “Donald Trump is a Loser.” In the eyes of Never Trump Republicans, this article alone places John Sununu among their ranks. But in the eyes of MAGA nation, it may make him a “Republican in Name Only,” or RINO — arguably, the dirtiest word in Republican politics today.
This poses a make-or-break question for his candidacy: how will he navigate a senate campaign in the age of Trump? Sununu is stuck between a rock and a hard place as he mulls a run. He will undoubtedly get bombarded with questions about his past comments on Trump, and he’ll need good answers. It would be easy for him to take a page out of the J.D. Vance playbook: say he got Trump all wrong and that he’s finally come to appreciate what a great president he is. I think he should try something different: Own it.
New Hampshire isn’t a very conservative state, especially in national politics: all four members of its congressional delegation are Democrats, and it has gone blue in six of the last seven presidential elections. If Sununu managed to win a Senate seat, he would be the first Republican to do so in the Granite State since N.H. Gov. Kelly Ayotte in 2010. Despite his name recognition, Sununu is facing an uphill battle in this race — one where sharing a party label with the unpopular president, even in name only, is a dead weight on his candidacy.
By appealing to Trump, he could come within striking distance of Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., the Democratic frontrunner — but Sununu likely won’t win, and with his loss will go his credibility. Current polling has him down just two points to Pappas — a statistical tie — but that’s before he begins his run and struggles to walk a fine line between criticizing and supporting the president. Even though Democrats are by no means popular with the American electorate, Republicans are even less so — and they control Congress and the White House. Since the ruling party almost always performs worse in the midterms, I would not rule out a sizable blue wave next fall, comparable to that of 2018. That would doom Sununu’s chances.
Instead, if the former senator embraces his family’s legacy of fiscally responsible, sensible conservatism, he might just have a chance. After all, his brother Chris won a third term as governor in 2020 with a whopping 65% of the vote — even as Joe Biden carried the state with nearly 53% on the same ballot. Clearly, there are Democrats in New Hampshire with an appetite for moderate Republican candidates, and Sununu could satiate that hunger.
In an interview with WMUR9 published on Sept. 3, Sununu said, “Over the next month, I’ll travel across the state. Talk to people. Listen, get their perspective … and I’ll make a decision by the end of next month.” Only time will tell what answer the former senator decides to give to the Trump question — if he chooses to run at all. But reversing his stance will only reveal political grift, which New Hampshire voters can smell from a mile away.
Sununu should stand his ground. And if he does, Granite Staters just might send him back to Washington after an 18-year break.
Opinion articles represent the views of their author(s), which are not necessarily those of The Dartmouth.
