Jobs and Unemployment
Professors interviewed by The Dartmouth said the candidates Bachmann, Romney, Perry, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., Gov. Jon Huntsman, R-Utah, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn. will be expected to deliver personalized proposals for fighting the high unemployment rate.
"What to do about the jobs that's really where we are," economics professor David Blanchflower said. "The economy is not delivering jobs fast enough."
The latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Oct. 7 showed that the United States remains at a steady 9.1 percent unemployment rate despite an increase of 103,000 jobs last month. President Barack Obama has faced criticism from the Republican challengers on his perceived inability to create employment, with Perry especially emphasizing a record of job creation during his 11-year tenure as governor of Texas.
"We're not creating enough jobs to compensate the extra number of people entering the labor force," Blanchflower said. "And jobs in the public sector are falling, but job creation in the private sector is not growing fast enough for the unemployment rate to come down."
Economics professor Bruce Sacerdote said that the unemployment figure is an "understatement" of the how bad the economy actually is, since many people are underemployed or working at a lower wage than they desire.
"People do care about the deficit, but first and foremost they want jobs and income," Sacerdote said.
HEALTH CARE
The Republican candidates have expressed desire to repeal the mandate under the recent health care legislation that requires individuals to purchase private health insurance, a regulation many have claimed is unconstitutional, according to government professor Sonu Bedi. These platforms lead to questions regarding what alternatives the candidates will propose in order to lower costs and possibly ensure coverage for everyone, Bedi said.
"Is health care a personal decision, or is it part of the economy?" Bedi said. "One reason why people worry when they lose jobs is because they don't have health care, so in that way it is an economic activity. Some people think government is the solution, so that health care costs will go down and everyone will be covered."
DEBATE DYNAMICS
Candidates' performance in past debates including Perry's fumbled criticism of Romney's tendency to change his policy stances at the Fox/Google debate in Orlando, Fla., on Sept. 22 may not necessarily affect their chances on Tuesday due to lack of previous viewership, according to government professor Linda Fowler. Because Bloomberg News, one of the debate's four sponsors, is a "leader of opinion," the debate may attract a significant number of business leaders and other campaign funders who are closley watching how the candidates improve, Fowler said.
"The audience is trying to figure out what the narrative of the Republican campaign will be and what exactly they want to say to voters," Fowler said. "Candidates have to think about economic issues in a different way than they have so far and refine their messages."
Since the candidates do not have significant economic policy differences each of their platforms emphasizes decreasing taxes and federal spending Tuesday's debate will focus more on their stylistic differences and effective delivery of policy messages, Nyhan said. Because the Republicans are united against Obama's economic plan, the individual candidates will focus more on trying to convince viewers that they are the most "viable" candidate, he said.
"For example, Perry will try to show that he can perform at the level of a top presidential candidate, which he didn't do at the last debate and got people worried," Nyhan said.
Faculty members offered various expectations of what the dynamics of Tuesday's debate will be, as the College debate marks one of the first opportunities to tackle solely economic issues in a moderate but first-in-the-nation primary state.
"People tend to pull punches, and there have been lots of punches so far," Nyhan said. "Perry wants to take Romney down, so he's got to be more negative, and Romney will want to go after Perry."
Cain, who recently announced his "9-9-9" tax plan which includes a 9 percent tax across income, corporate and sales taxes may get "the most teeth," as the current GOP favorite, Fowler said.
"He's moving up in the polls now, and the other candidates might try to cut him down," she said.
APPEALING TO GOP VIEWERS
Government professor Richard Lebow said many Republican candidates are focusing on promoting their loyalty to the Tea Party and evangelical values rather than addressing the economic climate.
"It's a group of people who are trying to gain the nomination by saying, I'm holier than thou' and who appeal to a very narrow segment of the American population," Lebow said. "The interesting question is what will happen at the National Republican Convention because if they want any chance of winning, they need someone who has a broad appeal."
The candidates' immediate concern, however, is to appeal to people who vote in the primaries and to Tuesday night's viewers, who are likely to be right-wing Republicans, Lebow said.
Bedi said he expects the candidates to respond to the "Occupy Wall Street" protests when answering questions on the economy on Tuesday evening.
"I'll be shocked if they don't talk about these folks who are asking for more government action," he said. "They're going to have to speak to this frustration."
People's demand for further federal regulation conflicts with the Republican platform to reduce taxes and government involvement, Bedi said.
"It's not just disagreement about policy, but about fundamental values," he said. "[Republicans] really do believe that less federal government is better for everyone, while I think a lot of people have this idea that there has to be some regulation."
LACKING A STANDOUT CANDIDATE
In recent weeks, media attention has bounced quickly among candidates, although not always in a positive light, according to Fowler.
"We've had a candidate of the week' when someone new comes into the race and does well enough to get attention," she said. "But media can be a mixed blessing."
The public might have to wait until the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus to see one particularly strong candidate emerge, according to Rockefeller Center Director Andrew Samwick.
"You might be able to assert that New Hampshire is a make-or-break state for Romney to prove he can win a primary, and the Iowa caucuses might be great for Bachman, given she's from neighboring Minnsesota," Samwick said.
The present lack of an obvious frontrunner may also be due to the low cost of campaigning this early in the race, according to Samwick.
"There aren't a lot of TV ads promoting and criticizing the candidates, and no big fundraising push or campaign events," Samwick said. "Once those start, people will be prompted to pay more attention."
With the help of political scientists, candidates now understand that the effects of early media campaigns wear off quickly, so candidates choose to save their money for later campaigns, according Nyhan.
"It's becoming better understood that TV ads don't have lasting impact, so they don't want to waste their money," he said. "They're sitting on money until the end when people pay more attention." Races with open contests such as the general election tend to generate more attention than single-party competitions, Samwick said.
"This [race] feels sluggish, but we have 13 months before the election, so it's not like you can say we're behind," he said.
