Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., will likely face Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in her 2010 reelection bid. Shea-Porter became the first Democrat to represent New Hampshire's first district since 1982 when she defeated two-term incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley, R-N.H., in 2006. She defeated Bradley again in her 2008 race for reelection.
"It looks like a really competitive race that Republicans are going to look to pick up," Dartmouth government professor Joseph Bafumi said in an interview with The Dartmouth.
The current crop of likely Republican candidates include Guinta, along with Peter Bearce, Bob Bestani, Mike Castaldo, Sean Mahoney and John Stephen.
"The latest polls have Guinta about tied with Shea-Porter," Bafumi said.
The race will occur during a midterm year, which Bafumi said will improve Guinta's chances. Shea-Porter, on the other hand, has the advantages of incumbency and name recognition, he said, and is unlikely to face a Democratic challenger.
The presidential party tends to lose seats in midterm congressional elections, which could affect Shea-Porter's chances, Dartmouth government professor Dean Lacy said in an interview with The Dartmouth. There have only been three elections since the Civil War 1934, 1998 and 2002 in which the ruling party picked up seats midterm, he said.
"Shea-Porter will have to face the prospect that the national tide one year from now may be going in an anti-Democratic direction," Lacy said.
Voters could also feel threatened by the Democrats' proposed health care changes, Bafumi said.
"New Hampshire is a libertarian state, so changes that the Democrats are asking for could be seen as too much too quickly," Bafumi said. "People are concerned about the costs, which could benefit the Republicans."
Bafumi said Shea-Porter "hasn't raised a lot of money in the past," but her incumbency may help her raise more during the current race. President Barack Obama's campaign, which raised roughly $600 million, opened doors for internet fundraising and social networking, Lacy said. If Obama makes his list of donors available, Shea-Porter could mobilize these contributors in the upcoming congressional race, he said.
"I think it's going to be a targeted race you're going to be seeing a lot of publicity and a lot of people donating money," Bafumi said.
David Imamura '10, president of the New Hampshire College Democrats, said both the national Republican and Democratic parties have taken an interest in the race. While the Dartmouth College Democrats will most likely focus on the second district race over the next year, he said, Dartmouth students have helped the Shea-Porter campaign in the past.
The Republican party will focus on small donors, Ashley Roland '12, the Dartmouth College Republicans publicist, said.
Shea-Porter's accomplishments in office include her work to create jobs in the Portsmouth shipyards and her involvement in veterans affairs, Joan Ashwell, an executive committee member of the Strafford County Democrats, said in an interview with The Dartmouth.
"I think she speaks well for the first congressional district, and I think she's been very responsible to the concerns of her constituents, particularly in the area of health care and the economy," Ashwell said.
Shea-Porter, Guinta and Castaldo did not return requests for comment by press time.