The UNH survey came a day after an American Research Group poll showed Shaheen having a 22-point lead, contributing further to speculation that the UNH results may be anomalous.
The UNH poll director, Andrew Smith, could not be reached for comment.
"This is really early in the political season, and the poll results you see here are indicative of relatively transitory reflections on the political race at this time," Dartmouth government professor Richard Winters, who studies state politics, said.
Winters explained that Senate and gubernatorial races in New Hampshire historically do not "start" until Labor Day.
"That is why both of these polls are tapping into the sentiments of voters that are fleeting and not well-anchored," he said.
Some observers, following the release of the UNH survey results, have suggested that voters shifted toward Sununu in light of the state of the U.S. economy. Sununu advocates drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and offshore, a move Shaheen opposes.
Winters disputed the argument that the economy has affected the polls, reiterating that it is too early in the race for surveys to reflect voters' attitudes about the candidates' specific policy positions.
Winters noted that polls that rely on telephone interviews, like the UNH initiative, may prove misleading because they can exclude young people who increasingly use only cell phones, which are not listed in phone books.
"The issue is whether the problem is distributed randomly between the two candidates, which is unlikely," he said.
Dartmouth College Democrats President David Imamura '10 also cautioned against making any inferences from the UNH poll, saying that "New Hampshire polls are very, very unstable."
"Just look at the New Hampshire [Democratic] primary: [Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.] was ahead by 10 [points], and then [Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.] ended up winning," he said. "Every other poll of this race has had Governor Shaheen ahead by a substantial margin. The race is not closing."
College Republicans President Doug Zarbock '10, however, said the narrowing suggested by the UNH poll "is something I would have predicted." Zarbock recently interned in Sununu's office.
"Early on in the race, before the people of New Hampshire began looking at the individual qualifications of the candidates, the polls were generally reflecting people's dissatisfication with Congress as a whole," Zarbock said.
This phenomenon disadvantages incumbents like Sununu, Zarbock added.
"Now they remember Jeanne Shaheen's record when she was governor, and they look at John Sununu's record in the Senate," he said. "I think they are going to remember why they elected John Sununu in 2002."
In preparation for November, the College Democrats held a voter registration drive last week and are planning a major get-out-the-vote effort for the fall, Imamura said. Zarbock said Republicans at the College do not have any specific plans, but "will do everything [they] can" to support the Sununu campaign.
Both Imamura and Zarbock said their respective candidates need to promote their records in public office to succeed in November.
Sununu, however, faces an uphill battle, Winters said, given the dominance of the presidential race in the state. The Obama campaign's well-established foothold in New Hampshire may overshadow Sununu's attempts to get his message out, Winters explained.
The UNH survey also indicates that Rep. Paul Hodes '72, D-N.H., has a 19- to 20-point lead over his most likely Republican opponents.
