As the NBA regular season winds down, I find two themes readily apparent in the Western Conference over course of the year: Its utter dominance over the pony league Eastern Conference and the unusual parity amongst its playoff-bound teams. Though the West has been the superior conference essentially every year since Michael Jordan left the Bulls, the 2007-2008 season will be remembered as one of the most lopsided years regarding the East-West power balance. Only three playoff-bound East teams have winning records against the Western Conference, while the worst record against the East amongst Western playoff-bound teams is from the Dallas Mavericks, who went 18-12 on the season.
The fact that the West outshines the East is nothing new; what is unique to the Western Conference this season is that there are good arguments for almost every playoff-bound team in the West to reach the finals. This rarely witnessed parity will nearly guarantee each series going to six of seven games. No team in the West will have an easy road to the finals. There are five teams that are less than two games back from conference-leading Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have only seven more wins than the eighth-seed Nuggets, 55 wins to 48, while the East-leading Celtics have 27 more wins than the conference's eighth-seed Atlanta Hawks, 64 wins to 37.
What can be taken from all this? The West being better than the East in no way guarantees a title for a Western team. Even though most Eastern playoff teams are just plain mediocre, the lesser conference will still be sending a quality team to the finals in the Boston Celtics or Detroit Pistons.
What could turn out to be an advantage, the Western team that reaches the final will have to survive three tough series. The team that reaches the finals from the West will have already beaten at least two teams of a comparable caliber to the Celtics and Pistons; besides, in the likely Celtics-Pistons conference finals series, the Eastern finalist will have played just against a bunch of junk. I believe that the wear and tear that goes with longer series will be overridden by the fact that the West team will not have to increase its level of play to succeed in the finals, while the East team will be forced to do so.
Another arbitrary, though I believe significant, advantage that the West will have pertains to the scheduling of the NBA finals. Unlike in other playoff series, the team with the better record in the finals plays its first two games at home, followed by three away, with the final two at home again. The three-game away stretch can be devastating, as evidenced by the Mavericks' collapse in the 2006 finals. I could not see Miami turning around that series without having those three straight games at home. In the 2008 finals, the Eastern team will likely have the better record, since Boston and Detroit both currently have more wins than any Western team. I could not picture either team going into Utah or San Antonio for three straight games and pulling off any more than one win.
Now which team will the West send to the finals? Despite the near identical records of most of the Western contenders, only a few teams really have a shot to reach the finals. Denver, who will most likely edge out the Warriors for the final spot since both teams close the season with similar schedules but the Nuggets hold the tiebreaker, might be part of the only five-game series in the Western half. Even though on paper the Nuggets look like they should be the cream of the conference, with all-stars in Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson and a respectable supporting cast, the team is so bad defensively that they can be all but ruled out of getting to the second round. A recent 124-97 loss to Utah is telling enough; the team cannot compete with the Western elite.
I have come down to three teams from the West that have a real shot at the title -- the Spurs, Lakers, and Jazz. The Spurs are always a blue chip pick. Their big three in Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are still dominant, and the supporting cast is also strong with good role players like Bruce Bowen. Ginobili is the healthiest he has been in three seasons. The defense is as strong as they come; the Spurs allow the fewest points in the NBA.
I cannot rule out the Lakers because of Kobe Bryant, who along with Lebron James comprises the NBA's best players. His supporting cast, with the acquisition of Pau Gasol and the development of Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic, has substantially improved this year. Kobe also has the experience of dealing with the high pressure situations that this year's playoffs will inevitably bring and can take a game over if he sees the need to.
Though the Spurs and Lakers have legitimate shots, the Jazz are my pick to win it all. They are still a young team that will not tire over the course of the playoffs. With a great point guard in Deron Williams and a cadre of dominant big men, the team has talent in all positions. In the case of the Jazz, youth does not equate with inexperience, since they reached the conference finals just last year. The team is healthy and has played consistently well all season and can match up against any of the Western teams. Utah's talent will be too varied for the three-headed Celtics and the team too youthfully energized for the aging Pistons. As the West deserves, one of its own will be taking home the NBA title. The team that makes it will surely have a tough fight, but it will all pay off with a championship over the lesser conference.
