Osama bin Laden is at it again. A month ago Al-Qaeda released another new bin Laden tape, following a flurry of Osama videotape releases about two months ago. Since the fall of 2001, Osama has been on the run with a death warrant hanging over his head, but as far as anyone knows, he is still alive. The question is, does any of this matter?
Osama bin Laden has reached the point of irrelevance in international relations.
Opponents of current U.S. anti-terrorism strategies see Osama bin Laden's continued lease on life as one of the most glaring failures of the United States' War on Terror. However, this is not an important failure. It is true that capturing or killing Osama was one of our main goals when we invaded Afghanistan and began our post-9/11 operations, but wars can be won without victory in every battle.
I admit it would be wonderful if we had been able to kill Osama before now, but the important thing is that we have rendered him irrelevant. Bin Laden has been reduced to a voice in the wilderness, a mad lunatic who rails against everything that displeases him with few consequences.
It is true there are still a number of terrorists who respect bin Laden and try their hardest to help him in his jihad against modernization and everything non-Muslim, but he has very little control over them. He is a preacher who is only seen on the Internet. He is the father of a movement whose current condition and whereabouts are unknown. While he is still able to inspire, he is not able to lead. When Operation Enduring Freedom threw itself into Afghanistan and destroyed bin Laden's and the Taliban's grip on power, Al-Qaeda was forced to undergo radical changes in its structure.
As intelligence officials began to eliminate terrorist cells by neutralizing the chains of command, Osama and other top leaders were forced into hiding. Even then, bin Laden was nearly killed. His escape provided temporary inspiration for terrorists everywhere who believed that he would return and continue to lead, but he never did. Now that he was being hunted, Osama could not remain connected to his organization. If others knew his whereabouts and made regular contact his enemies would find him. As such, Al-Qaeda decentralized and became a loose conglomeration of cells. These cells were essentially autonomous from the larger organization and could fly the Al-Qaeda banner as long as they adhered to loose, global goals (Jihad, death to America, etc.).
It was the decentralization of the larger organization that allowed Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to become such an influential player in the global game of Terror. Al-Qaeda was able to take partial credit for all of its Iraqi players' destruction while conducting relatively minor and unsuccessful attacks elsewhere in the world. (The trade off in decentralizing your forces is less expertise and experience in planning big operations.)
AQI, however, has begun to falter in Iraq as Iraqis grow weary of violence, especially violence directed at other Iraqis. Iraqis are joining together in opposition to AQI, and surprisingly, in the Anbar province, Sunni coalitions are leading the resistance to AQI (AQI is a primarily Sunni group that targets Shiites). It seems as though AQI is rapidly approaching defeat.
Where has Osama been through all of this?
During AQI's glory days he argued with former AQI leader Zarqawi about using violence against fellow Muslims. Judging by AQI's track record, Osama lost that argument. Now that AQI is faltering, bin Laden sends out more videos and audiotapes. He directed one of these to Al-Qaeda fighters in Iraq for the first time ever, imploring them to cooperate with the AQI cause so that the battle may be won. It does not really look like that is happening, either. He was right about how violence against Iraqis would turn them against AQI, but he was not heeded. He is still ignored.
Although he was once the mastermind of a terrific terrorist organization, international actions against bin Laden have greatly undermined his relevance and ability to influence the jihad. He no longer has the contacts to plan operations. Many of his assets have been frozen, greatly reducing his role as financier. He is constantly on the run, hiding from death while he implores others to sacrifice their own lives for the cause.
Dead or alive, Osama has become irrelevant. I hope he does not read this column, though. He might get angry and release a videotape.
