While excitement and anticipation usually precede the Olympics, threats of boycotts and protests are all that loom before this year's summer games in Beijing.
The activist group Olympic Dream for Darfur hopes its protests will encourage China to help end the current regime in Sudan. In September 2007, Bishop Desmond Tutu claimed he would join the boycott against the Olympics if China did not intervene in Burma. Students for a Free Tibet hopes its threats will compel China to make Tibet independent. Each of these groups has its own agenda.
I'm calling a protest on these protests.
The activists' plans seem simple enough: threaten to boycott the Olympics until China is forced to make concessions. But let's be realistic: with only six months until the start of the Olympics, it is extremely unlikely that any of these activist groups will be able to get the support needed to put any meaningful pressure on China. Countries invested in the Olympics would be taking great economic and political risk if they were to pull their athletes -- a reality that is undoubtedly not lost on China.
At this point, expecting that boycotts and protests will affect China's policies is simply naive. In fact, boycotting and protesting the Olympics may do more harm than good -- it may push these groups even further away from acquiring the support and cooperation they seek from China.
To see why, one must consider the significance of the Olympics to the host country. Far beyond ball games and relay races, the Games are a way for China to present itself as a major world force. Anyone who gets in the way of these goals will tarnish relations with China, making it difficult to reach any agreement on the Darfur, Burma or Tibet situations.
China certainly did not react in an understanding manner when the Dalai Lama encouraged the boycott on the Olympics, claiming that China's repression of Tibet had worsened in recent years. Last week China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman accused the Dalai Lama of "sabotaging China's relations with other nations and interfering with the Olympic games," stating that he was "in no way a religious or spiritual leader...purely a general leader bent on pursuing separatism and sabotaging national unity."
Recently, China has even reacted against citizens fighting for human rights within the country. A former factory worker was jailed after gathering 10,000 signatures for a petition that read "We Want Human Rights, Not The Olympics." Chinese legal expert Teng Biao recently told The New York Times that "all the troublemakers -- including potential troublemakers -- are being silenced before the Olympic Games."
This reaction demonstrates the importance of the Olympic Games to China's government and warns those who threaten to disrupt it. China has invested billions of dollars in its "coming out party." The Olympics represent an ideal opportunity for China to showcase its capabilities, advancements and culture to the world. Who would expect the nation to be eager to listen to requests from groups that jeopardize this major public relations opportunity?
Although there have been successful Olympic boycotts in the past, it is necessary to consider China's specific case. Even if these groups are able to amass sufficient support, China is a country desperate to establish itself on a level plane with other world powers and will therefore be reluctant to submit to bullying by special interest groups.
Instead of using the Olympics to threaten China, activists should engage post-Olympics China in their initiatives; a year from now, they will be dealing with a country coming off of a tremendous boost in confidence and stature on the world stage. Rather than provoking the Chinese government through disruptive external pressures, activists should encourage China's overall development. A new China will be much more comfortable with its security and sovereignty and therefore able to conduct a dialogue with activist groups in a more mature and rational manner.
Let's step back and allow China to experience the glory and pride of hosting a successful Olympic Games. This, in turn, will greatly enhance the country's self-esteem and create a China that will be more likely to act in a responsible and magnanimous manner.
Let the games begin.