For a program that has a great deal of history, with four consecutive NCAA appearances from 1941-4 followed by three more appearances from 1956-9, the Big Green has fallen on hard times in the past half-century.
Yet it appears there is hope. Earlier this week, The Dartmouth reported that the Big Green squad "has its eye on greater things, more importantly an Ivy League Championship and its first NCAA berth since 1959."
Not so fast my friend.
Where the Big Green has excelled so far is in rebounding margin, where (this is a pretty amazing stat, so get ready for it), they lead the Ivy League with a -0.1 margin. This means that no team in the Ivy League averages more rebounds than its opponent.
Dartmouth is also second in the Ivy League in blocked shots and turnover margin and third in steals. These are the hallmarks of a well-coached team: rebounding and defense.
Due to the magic of advanced basketball statistics, we can see where the Big Green is doing well and where they can improve. Ken Pomeroy, whose Pomeroy rankings give a comprehensive assessment and ranking of every Division I basketball program, ranks the Big Green No. 309 out of 341 teams. These rankings put us 10 spots below 3-12 Princeton, though I am not sure that the difference between team No. 299 and No. 309 is all that much. The Big Green's ranking differs from its record in large part because Pomeroy rates them as the 12th luckiest basketball team in Division I. Dartmouth has garnered 1.7 wins more than expected given its statistics (this could also be the hallmark of a team that wins close games).
The Big Green excel relative to their league opponents in a few categories, including offensive and defensive turnover percentage (turnovers as a percentage of possessions), block percentage on both offense and defense, offensive rebounding and defensive steal percentage. Again, these advanced statistics confirm with basic raw numbers that the Big Green excels in these categories, marks of a well-coached, disciplined team.
Alex Barnett '09, the team's leading scorer, also has the 53rd best turnover rate in the entire country at just 11.3 percent, which is not something that you expect from a 6-6 forward who scores a quarter of a team's points.
The reason for the Big Green's low rating in the Pomeroy rankings is predominantly because of the miserable strength of the team's schedule. Dartmouth has the 11th easiest schedule in all of Division I and had the ninth easiest non-conference schedule.
Pomeroy's rankings say Dartmouth will only be favored in two games for the rest of the season: a back-to-back home weekend against the University of Pennsylvania and Princeton on Feb. 22-23. With four more games left in the season, Pomeroy's rankings project the Big Green has a greater than a 25 percent chance of winning, but give the Big Green little shot at making an Ivy League title run.
So are these numbers encouraging or discouraging? The answer is that they are a little of both. No one can complain about winning and Dartmouth should not be worried about its strength of schedule at this point. Winning often leads to better recruiting, which should help win more games. If Dartmouth ever develops into an elite program -- a development I will happily welcome -- then it can worry about scheduling more difficult opponents in the hope of getting an NCAA tournament bid (not particularly realistic, but a sports columnist can dream, can't he?).
But we should dampen our enthusiasm just a bit and realize that the Big Green is not one of the best teams in the Ivy League just yet.
If the team shows continued improvement the rest of the season and wins some Ivy League games, then it can be considered in that category, but for now, its record is a bit misleading. The Big Green has only beaten one team in the top 200 (No. 196 Vermont) and four in the bottom 100 (including Maryland Eastern Shore, the third worst team in Division I).
Confidence is great, and this Big Green squad certainly possesses it right now, but one cannot ignore that there is a gap between the Big Green's record and its actual performance. Do not let this dampen your enthusiasm, however, and head down to Leede Arena to support the basketball squad. Just don't be shocked if they don't win the Ivy League title.
