New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary may lose importance following a recommendation of the Democrats' rules and bylaws committee that changes the schedule of state presidential contests. The change worries state Democrats and may dampen the traditional flurry of presidential candidates who traditionally visit Dartmouth.
In an effort to add more diversity to the primary process, the Democratic Party's rules and bylaws committee voted to move the date of a primary in South Carolina to right after New Hampshire's, and hold a caucus in Nevada before.
New Hampshire, a state composed of about 95 percent whites, has held the first primary since 1976. This status has earned the small state disproportionate attention from presidential candidates hoping to start off strong campaigns and entice donors. The committee's recommendations still must be approved by the full Democratic National Committee in August, but approval is expected.
Government professor Linda Fowler, who studies the New Hampshire primary, said she does not predict that the proposed changes will wipe Hanover from the political map. She pointed out that candidates have invested in political infrastructure in New Hampshire which will keep the state relevant.
"I think that it's not going to have an immediate impact," she said. "At least for this election cycle, things won't change so much. I think that the Nevada caucus won't be a big draw."
While she said presidential candidates will continue to visit the College, Fowler believes that because of South Carolina's new primary date, candidates will not be able to spend as much time in New Hampshire.
"I think New Hampshire will still be a major draw for the candidates and the press, but obviously [the South Carolina primary] is going to complicate life for the candidates a lot because they will have to divide their time more than they had before," she said. "Instead of getting five visits from John McCain, we'll probably only get one."
New Hampshire College Democrats President Adam Patinkin '07 confirmed that several Democratic presidential candidates have expressed great interest in visiting Dartmouth, but there are no firm commitments yet. He named Virginia governor Mark Warner and Iowa governor Tom Vilsack as candidates who may visit the College.
Patinkin said he was not pleased by the changes, but doubts that, at least in the short run, they will severely diminish the importance of Dartmouth and the number of visits to Hanover. As for the long run, he was less certain.
"It's possible that the long term effect will be negative, that there will just be less time for candidates to engage one-on-one with Dartmouth students like they did in the past," he said.
According to supporters like party chairman Howard Dean, the schedule change is intended to increase diversity in primaries, and South Carolina and Nevada have a higher proportion of non-whites than New Hampshire. Summarizing the opinion of those who advocate the schedule changes, Fowler explained that New Hampshire has been criticized as unrepresentative because it lacks black and union member voters.
Patinkin took issue with this argument, claiming that the state's roughly equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents provide a different sort of diversity.
"One form of diversity is ideological diversity," he said. "In New Hampshire, you have some of the most ideologically diverse people in the nation. It's really unlike any other state in the nation."
He also stressed that New Hampshire is more suited than other states to "retail politics," which involves candidates interacting individually with voters. To win New Hampshire, he said, a candidate needs to be able to effectively interact face-to-face with voters, adding, "If you can't win over New Hampshire, you really don't deserve to be president."
Fowler noted that New Hampshire possesses an above-average voter turnout rate and a historically large population of political independents, which impedes candidates from pandering only to their base and tends to push them to the center.
"For critics of the primary system, who say that primaries produce candidates who are successful at mobilizing the base of party but cannot appeal to center, where most Americans locate themselves politically, New Hampshire has a moderating effect," she said.
Reacting to the Democratic Party's moves, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner said he might invoke a state law that requires the state's primary to be held one week before similar contests.
Fowler said she could understand the sentiments behind the schedule change, but reiterated that Dartmouth students should not start mourning the loss of primary contender visits.
"They'll still come," Fowler said. "But we have much more attention than we deserved. Maybe it will be more proportional now."
