Critical of the United States' role in Iraq's transition to democracy, University of Michigan history professor Juan Cole delivered a lecture Thursday on the future of Iraq and its newly elected government to a crowd of primarily Hanover residents and a few students.
Cole focused on the Shi'ite aspect of the new Iraqi government in relation to Shi'ites in the Middle East at large. Shi'ite Muslims, who make up 10 percent of all Muslims worldwide, make up 62 percent of the Iraqi population and 90 percent of the Iranian population. Emphasizing the multiple ethnic divisions within Iraq, Cole explained that these were key sources of friction in the new government.
According to Cole, the United States originally planned to place a group of expatriate politicians in Iraqi control, but then gave control to L. Paul Bremer, a longtime state department employee. This course of action was based on the original post-WWII European revitalization plan.
"I don't think Mr. Bremer knew very much about Iraq before he went there," he said.
Cole spoke at length about the unpopularity and incompetence of Paul Bremer, citing statements Bremer made, such as, "We will go into Iraq imposing our will on their people," and "It's not much fun being an occupier."
Next, he discussed Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, another key figure to emerge in Iraq's political history. Sistani opposed United States involvement in Iraq because of the secular nature of America. Cole continually emphasized the deep influence exerted by religious figures in Iraq, particularly by Shi'ite leaders.
The Ayatollah gained power through his extensive religious influence and helped ferment unrest among the Iraqi people, according to Cole.
In response to Sistani's involvement in Iraqi politics, the United States revised its election plan, which Sistani supposedly rejected on the grounds that it was not democratic enough.
"It's a little amusing that the Grand Ayatollah was lecturing the United States on this principle," Cole said.
Other topics discussed included other religious movements that emerged in Iraq, such as militant forces following Muqtada al-Sadr, and the problems facing power transfers in Iraq.
"It was so dangerous in Iraq that Mr. Bremer was not able to hold a transfer ceremony, which would have attracted mortar fire," he said.
Cole talked about the appointment of Iyad Allawi as the interim prime minister following Bremer's evacuation from Iraq and the problems facing Iraq's first round of democratic elections when the United States decided to renew its offensive to wipe out the remaining insurgents.
"Most of the Sunni areas went out of control," he said. "Most of the Sunnis boycotted the elections."
The Shi'ites won the election by a huge majority because of the Shiite majority in Iraq, as well as the non-participation of the Sunnis.
The new prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, had extremely close relations with Iran, which raised United States concerns by strengthening ties to Iran.
The professor then outlined the new confederacy plan for the Iraqi government.
"The last time we had a confederacy in this [the American] government, we had a lot of problems," Cole said.
A national referendum rejected the constitution, which prompted a new round of elections that took place on Dec. 15. The new official prime minister still remains unclear, with the future prime minister coming from the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shi'ite party dominated by fundamentalists.
The professor closed by talking about how sectarian and ethnic identities have become the main political forces in Iraq, and Shi'ite fundamentalist parties are in a dominant position.
He emphasized the key role the United States will play in the future of the Iraqi people, stating that a hasty withdrawal could lead to a civil war or something even worse.
The John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding sponsored the lecture as part of the center's "Great Issues" lecture series.
