Each of the main categories in this year's Oscars has its share of underdogs, surprises and the nominees to beat -- but this year, critics' choices are seemingly split, due in large part to the lack of a major studio film to lead the way in nominations. According to USA Today, the combined domestic gross of the five best picture nominees is roughly $185.5 million, the lowest total in the past four Oscar years. "Brokeback Mountain," leading the race with eight nominations, appears to be the overall front-runner in the Oscar race. Strong support for several standout performances, however, makes predicting a winner in the acting categories particularly challenging.
In the best actor category, the two critics' favorites are Philip Seymour Hoffman and Heath Ledger, both having acquired endless accolades for their work in "Capote" and "Brokeback Mountain," respectively. Hoffman has swept the category in every major awards show from the Golden Globes to the British Academy of Film and Television Arts as well as taking home prizes from the National Board of Review and multiple smaller regional critics' associations. Ledger, despite having only received an award from the New York Film Critics' Circle, is somehow the darling and repeatedly appeared as the probable winner on multiple critics' lists, including those of Entertainment Weekly film critic Lisa Schwarzbaum and former Premiere magazine editor Anne Thompson. The remaining three nominees also delivered strong performances (David Strathairn for "Good Night and Good Luck," Joaquin Phoenix for "Walk the Line" and Terrence Howard for "Hustle and Flow"); so why is Ledger considered to be the only possible scene-stealer on Oscar night?
"I give Ledger the win mainly because he's the equivalent of a gorgeous young ingenue like Halle Berry or Charlize Theron," said Thompson, "proving that, yes, he really can act."
The best actress category is seemingly split between Reese Witherspoon, portraying June Carter Cash in "Walk the Line," and Felicity Huffman of "Desperate Housewives" fame as a gender-reassignment patient in "Transamerica." Nominations also went to Charlize Theron (a recent winner) in "North Country," Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents" and dark horse Keira Knightley in "Pride and Prejudice." But with the Golden Globes going to Witherspoon in the Musical/Comedy category and Huffman in Drama, the race is clearly theirs. Huffman's chances have been hurt by the limited release of her little-seen film. Witherspoon, having recently won both the Screen Actor's Guild Award and the BAFTA, has an undeniable lead.
In the past few years, both critics and viewers have complained about the predictable nominees and winners at the Oscars. Hilary Swank, Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman, the winners of the past three years, were all dubbed "shoe-ins" by critics and went on to win their respective nominations. The same was said for Jamie Foxx, a winner for "Ray," and Sean Penn, a predicted winner for "Mystic River." While accolades are due for deserving performances, it is clear that the surprise win is what everyone is really wants.
The supporting actress and actor categories offer a more exciting envelope-opening, due in part to the large number of first-time nominees. Both categories feature four first-time nominees and one winner (Frances McDormand and William Hurt, respectively). Though Rachel Weisz has both a Golden Globe and a SAG award to her name, nominees Amy Adams (as a delightfully nave country wife in "Junebug") and Michelle Williams (Ledger's painfully sweet wife in "Mountain") have garnered respect and possible wins from Entertainment Weekly critics Schwarzbaum and Owen Gleiberman. Weisz's other competition comes in the form of Katherine Keener, a multiple award winner for her subdued portrayal of Harper Lee in "Capote," who is also People's predicted winner.
All bets are on for a showdown between Jake Gyllenhaal ("Brokeback Mountain"), George Clooney ("Syriana") and Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man"). Though Gyllenhaal collected the BAFTA last week, and Clooney grabbed the Golden Globe, a split in their votes would open the way for Giamatti, who (shockingly) didn't receive a nod for last year's critically-acclaimed "Sideways." Such a snub embarrassed the Academy, and they might make up for it this year. William Hurt ("A History of Violence") and Matt Dillon ("Crash") are particularly effective in their roles, but are overshadowed by the favored threesome.
Finally it all boils down to what could be the biggest toss-up, the best picture race. "Good Night and Good Luck," "Munich," and "Capote" are all strong films, but "Brokeback" is the obvious choice, having won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and New York, Los Angeles and Boston Film Critics Awards. Despite its strong track record, Time Magazine taps into why a loss is possible.
"The Academy remains a somewhat conservative body," Time writers Richard Corliss and Richard Schickel noted, in reference to the homosexual romance at the center of the film. "The film is also rather inarticulate -- to some, one of its most touching strengths -- and traditionally the Academy has preferred entertainments that state their business with a big thumping inspirational speech that is never spoken here."
Enter "Crash," a popular favorite for its in-your-face message and the frank manner in which it addresses current issues of racism. Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in the fall of 2004, "Crash" has managed to stay on the horizon, garnering critical support and five nominations, including two for director and writer Paul Haggis, despite its early May 2005 release date. "Crash" has been noted as either the predicted or deserving winner by both People and Time magazines, in addition to winning the best ensemble cast award (likened to the Best Picture Award) at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards.
The 78th Annual Academy Awards airs March 5 at 8 p.m. on ABC.
