In a lecture last week at Wilder Hall, oil industry expert Paul Nadeau '80 presented research that suggests that 2005 will come to be seen as the global peak in oil production.
Citing annual reports of major oil companies, Earth Sciences Professor James Aronson said he agrees with the assessment.
"Chevron Texaco has had a decline in their rate of production for the last five years," he said. "All of the major oil companies reported a drop last quarter in their production."
While environmentalists have been frustrated for some time by limited awareness of the impending world oil shortage, politicians and businessmen alike are beginning to take notice.
Just last month, media mogul Ted Turner and former President Bill Clinton discussed the future of energy in the United States and corporate responsibility in pioneering a new energy future.
At the forefront of the energy discussion are the efforts by Jeffery Immelt '78, CEO of General Electric. Immelt recently unveiled GE's eco-imagination plans, pledging to double its investment in energy efficient and environmental technology to $1.5 billion by 2010.
Energy efficiency will be critical if Nadeau is correct, as an energy shortage would result from a steady decline in oil production.
"[Oil] is a gift of geology to humanity," he said.
By all accounts it is a gift that must be conserved, but Nadeau does not predict any decrease in oil use until prices rise substantially.
"Every civilization will invariably migrate towards the cheapest energy source," Nadeau explained. "That will continue until there is some significant change."
Stat Oil, Norway's national oil company and Nadeau's employer, is now the world's third largest exporter of oil, after recently dropping from the second spot.
Aronson said that conservation of oil is essential.
"It is less critical when we reach the peak," Aronson said. "We need to focus on controlling the decline of production."
Nadeau defended his company and oil companies, which "are far too often vilified for their role in the production of petroleum," he said.
Nadeau's academic and industrial research has made Stat Oil's exploration techniques more efficient than their competitors.
Global exploration at Stat Oil is primarily confined to the golden zone, which corresponds to depths beneath the earth's surface where the temperature is between 60 degrees Celsius and 120 degrees Celsius.
According to Nadeau, at temperatures above 120 degrees Celsius, the risk of pressure increases and oil may migrate to shallower areas.
"Other companies can think of all sorts of reasons to say there is oil deeper, but that is not the reality," he said. "Since drilling cost is an exponential factor of depth, their methods seem very inefficient."
While Aronson stressed the importance of Nadeau's work and the value it will hold in the future, Aronson also sees cause for pessimism.
Aronson takes issue with the suggestion that 95 percent of the world's oil reserves are located in the "golden zone."
"What [Nadeau] is saying is that many of the world's oil companies have greatly overdrilled and overlooked for oil," Aronson said. "We have not only explored with great detail but we have overexplored, and it is unlikely that there is a major find in our future."
