The last several years have been marked by a lack of American success in the world of men's tennis. In recent years, only two Grand Slam titles have been won by Americans. Andre Agassi won the 2003 Australian Open and Andy Roddick won the 2003 U.S. Open. In addition, only one American -- Roddick -- has remained in the upper tier with players like Lleyton Hewitt, Marat Safin and Roger Federer, who hail from Australia, Russia and Switzerland, respectively.
Thus far, the 2005 season has been abysmal for American players. Agassi, now a relic from a past age, has been sidelined by injury in both the French Open and Wimbledon. Roddick, America's only consistent performer, lost in the semifinals of the Australian Open to Hewitt, lost in the second round of the French Open and was thoroughly crushed by Federer in the Wimbledon finals.
However, since the end of Wimbledon, Americans have started to show signs of better play with the beginning of the U.S. Open series -- a group of hard-court tournaments in the United States which culminates with the U.S. Open itself in September. Three weeks and three tournaments into the series, three Americans have emerged victorious.
First, in the RCA Championships, Robby Ginepri beat fellow American Taylor Dent in the finals. Next, Agassi won the Mercedes-Benz Cup to celebrate his return to active-player status. Most recently, Roddick beat fellow American James Blake in the Legg Mason Tennis Classic. Blake reentered the top 100 with his finals appearance after an injury-ridden 2004 season.
So how does recent American performance on hard courts bode for the year's final major at the U.S. Open? Unfortunately, it does not bode well at all. Players like Blake and Ginepri might make it a few rounds into the tournament, but they most likely aren't capable of producing the kind of tennis necessary to get them into the second week.
Agassi is far and away the most accomplished active American player, and is still capable of making a good run at the other players. Unfortunately, his age should prevent him from being a real threat once the second week arrives. Roddick is the only American who is consistently able to perform his way into the second week of most majors and remain a viable threat. But however consistent Roddick may be, he lacks the talent to be able to beat Federer, who is the man to beat at every major.
So far, the 2005 U.S. Open series has not been a good barometer of who will perform well at this year's U.S. Open. However, there are several things to count on at the 2005 U.S. Open.
First, Federer is the overwhelming favorite. He recently won his third straight Wimbledon title and now has a total of five Grand-Slam titles. Unfortunately, the level of tennis throughout the rest of the top ten is not good enough to provide any consistent competition for the world's number-one player.
Also, we can expect Roddick and Hewitt to advance well into the second week. Roddick's weapons -- his indomitable serve and his forehand -- keep him in contention, while Hewitt's speed and consistency are his strongest allies. Both of these players are strong favorites, but neither player has a recent victory over Federer to his credit.
Other international players capable of doing damage this year are Argentina's David Nalbandian and Spain's Rafael Nadal. Nadal has the speed and the groundstrokes necessary to play well on hard courts, but lacks the serve and first-strike abilities of some of the more experienced hard-court players. Nalbandian is not the most talented player, but is mentally strong and happens to be one of the few players who has given Federer trouble in the past.
The one wild card at the U.S. Open this year will be Russian Marat Safin. Safin's temper and personality always make him unpredictable and while he hasn't been outstanding, he at least has given consistent performances at the majors this year (barring his Australian Open victory). If Safin is capable of playing well after his recent knee surgery, then he is the one man capable of making this a truly entertaining tournament. Safin is the only player in the world right now who is the equal to, or has an even greater talent than, Federer. While he lacks Federer's mentality, he is capable of stringing together some absolutely great performances, which could win him the title.
So overall, expect the year's last major to play out similarly to this year's Wimbledon. Chances are that the top ten players will play true to their seedings, barring any injuries. Expect Marat Safin to be the one unbalancing force strong enough to upset this equilibrium.
