I hate to say it, but I told you so. Since opening day, I touted the St. Louis Cardinals as the preeminent team in the game, only to be met by public ridicule, nasty blitzes and downright vitriolic letters to the editor. I was laughed at by nearly everyone who asked me to predict the National League Central champs. Well, the season's over now, and I think the standings speak for themselves.
This is not to say that the playoffs will be a cakewalk for the Cards or any other team in a National League made wide open by injuries to several key players. This postseason should match or surpass the excitement and drama of last year as three storied NL powers -- and the Astros -- take the gloves off and duke it out, mano a mano.
Tradition abounds in the matchup between the L.A. Dodgers and the Cards. The Dodgers, fresh off a dogfight of a pennant race with the Giants, don't have an apparent advantage in this series, save for bespectacled Canadian closer Eric Gagne (7-3, 2.19 ERA, 45 Saves, 114 Ks) who thoroughly chews up Cardinals hitters. Wherever they would have an edge over another team, the Cardinals can match them and then some.
The Dodgers have one super-human hitter (3B Adrian Beltre), the Redbirds answer with three of their own (1B Albert Pujols, 3B Scott Rolen, and CF Jim Edmonds), not to mention several other regulars that swing the stick a bit. In terms of pitching, if ace Chris Carpenter were healthy (15-5, 3.46 ERA, 152 Ks in 182.0 innings), the Cardinals would clearly have the advantage. However, Carpenter is sidelined by a nagging biceps injury, so the staffs become more evenly matched.
That being said, I still think the Cards' starters can be effective enough so that the lineup can do its job and give the team a healthy lead for LHP's Ray King and Steve Kline to come in and shut the door on a heavily left-handed Dodgers lineup. Cards in four.
In the other first round match up, the perennial East champion Braves take on an aging (but hot) Astros team that made it to the postseason partly because of a spectacular collapse by the Small Bears from the North Side, but mainly because of an incredible run of 18 consecutive home victories and seven straight wins overall to close out the season.
The Braves, meanwhile, limped into the playoffs facing injuries to starter John Thomson (14-8, 3.72 ERA, 133 Ks) and 3B Larry "Chipper" Jones (.248, 30 HR, 96 RBI) that could prove problematic. More troubling for the Braves, though, is that Houston finally has a pitcher who is a proven playoff winner in gun-for-hire Roger Clemens (18-4, 2.98 ERA, 218 Ks in 214.1 innings), and a younger star player in Carlos Beltran to end their long streak of playoff ineptitude.
However, the Braves always take care of the Astros in the playoffs, and they don't have quite as many old men who could be worn down from a 162-game season on the squad, so in a close series that could go either way, I'll give the nod to history and youth. Braves in five.
In a repeat of the 1996 NLCS, a surprising Cards team will take on the Braves. Unlike 1996, though, the Cards will be able to finish off the Braves if they get a 3-1 series lead. The X-factor is Jeff Suppan. If he provides the Busch faithful with a Donovan Osborne-like collapse, this series could get ugly in a hurry. However, if Carpenter is healed in time for this series, the Redbirds should be able to make it to their first World Series since 1987. Cards in six.
This scenario will set up an intriguing World Series between baseball royalty: the class of the NL against the Evil Empire, the New York Yankees. In what is sure to be a spectacular series, a clash of great lineups and suspect pitching, I will stick with my preseason pick and take the Cards, in seven, at The Stadium, on Halloween.
