Barely four weeks ago, I wrote in this column that voters had "fallen in love with Howard Dean. . . He's the man to beat in the Democratic primary." I believed it, too. If you handed me a Bible, I'd have sworn on it. If you offered to bet, I'd have shaken your hand, called you a sucker and prepared to pocket your money.
Oops.
Time makes fools of us all -- especially those of us with the audacity to pontificate. The fact that countless other political commentators (and basically everyone else not on John Kerry's payroll) made the same mistake isn't much of an excuse. Howard Dean's initial rise was a surprise; his sudden fall was flat-out shocking.
Dean's collapse was virtually unprecedented in its speed and severity. Less than a month ago, Howard Dean enjoyed comfortable, double-digit leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. For almost a year, Dean's efforts had been concentrated on those two states. He'd raised more money than any other challenger. Howard Dean looked ready to coast through the first two primaries and establish himself as a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nod.
Instead, Dean stumbled out of the gates with a weak third place in Iowa, capped off with the infamous "I have a scream" speech, as the media instantly dubbed it. In New Hampshire -- Dean's own backyard -- he finished a distant second. With his Iowa/New Hampshire strategy in ruins, and his campaign war chest almost depleted, the "man to beat" was essentially out of the primary. If the door was still open by a crack, it slammed shut last Tuesday, when Dean failed to win any of the seven primaries, finishing with four third-places, a fourth and two fifths.
Why did the high-flying Howard Dean plummet to earth so quickly? Survey after survey and exit poll after exit poll gave a single explanation: electability. When it came time to step into the booth and cast a ballot, voters wanted to choose a candidate who could compete in the general election. The consensus was that Howard Dean didn't fit the profile. Electability turned out to be Dean's fatal flaw, and one largely of his own making.
Dean was first propelled to the front of the Democratic pack by his relentless, impassioned attacks on George W. Bush. He made no secret about his appeal to the "Democratic [read: liberal and Anti-Bush] wing of the Democratic Party." Dean staked out the high ground on Bush-bashing, and it endeared him to the party base. The media, fascinated by Dean in attack mode, labeled him "the angry candidate."
By the time Iowa rolled around, though, Dean's competition had jumped wholeheartedly onto the Bush-bashing bandwagon. The media was still playing-up the "angry" angle, and voters were starting to worry. But the message Dean sent out was: more anger. Dean's ads hailed his opposition to Bush on Iraq, his opposition to Bush on taxes, his opposition to Bush on basically anything. Instead of advancing original ideas, Dean's ads reveled in his "courageous" opposition to Bush before it was the cool thing to do. Judging from the Iowa results, this approach didn't play with voters as well as John Kerry's war record or even John Edwards' southern accent.
Then there was the speech. The huffing. The shedding of clothes. The scream. Dean supporters are quick to lament that their man got a bad rap for the "I have a scream" speech, that the press blew the incident way out of proportion. They're probably right, but it doesn't matter: Dean's speech was a colossal mistake simply because it played right into the angry stereotype growing around him. It confirmed potential supporters' worst fears; it cemented the image of Dean as unelectable.
Howard Dean was destroyed by style more than by substance -- a fate which may seem unfair. But Dean made politics his profession, and as a politician he should have known that perception actually is reality. And by playing -- knowingly or not -- into the perception of anger and instability that hung around him, he did what no other candidate had been able to do: he took Howard Dean down.
Of course, given my recent track record at political predictions, Dean will now go on to win it all. In this election, nothing can surprise me anymore.
