Democratic contender John Kerry won Monday night's Iowa caucuses, completing a stunning political comeback that saw the Massachusetts senator overtake frontrunners Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in the final week.
With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Kerry had 38 percent of Democratic delegates going to the state convention. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards finished in second place, with 32 percent, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean finished thrid with 18 percent and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt finished fourth with 11 percent. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich was the only other candidate to send delegates to the state convention, with 1 percent.
Kerry spent much of the Iowa race out of the spotlight, leaving Dean and Gephardt to bear most of the media glare and rivals' scrutiny. According to entrance polls, most Iowans saw electability as the most important factor in their decision, which benefited the long-time senator and Vietnam war veteran.
"It will put some juice in a flagging campaign," said government professor Linda Fowler. "In one night, he's put an end to the seemingly unending series of stories about his campaign not catching fire."
Edwards, who also rode a wave of momentum in the final week, finished in a surprisingly strong second place. Although he did not win, Edwards far outperformed expectations, giving his campaign the perception of victory. Many saw Edwards' decision to not run negative advertisements and focus on optimism as key in his strong finish in Iowa.
Dean, considered the national and New Hampshire frontrunner, finished in a disappointing third place. In the weeks leading up to the election, Dean polled in the lead, was endorsed by two large and diverse unions, SEIU and AFSCME, and was believed to have the strongest organization in the state.
For Gephardt, Monday night's embarrassing loss in Iowa forcedhim to drop out of the race altogether. He has himself admitted that anything short of a victory would spell death for his candidacy. Gephardt was expected to do very well in the caucuses, which he won in 1988, due to a majority of blue-collar union support and Missouri's proximity to Iowa.
Although the Iowa caucuses do not produce any convention delegates, they can give momentum to the winner or perceived winners heading into next week's New Hampshire primary. Besides Kerry, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who skipped the Iowa caucuses, will gain the most from last night's results, according to Fowler. She said that the trend of Dean supporters leaving to support Clark will increase, as Dean's weaknesses were exposed in Iowa.
The Iowa caucuses rose to national prominence in 1976, when nominee Jimmy Carter shocked the Democratic establishment with a surprising win that catapulted him to the presidency. Iowans still hold Carter in high esteem and that is seen as a reason why Dean took the unusual step to meet with Carter on Sunday in Georgia. Although the caucuses are hardly a reliable predictor of future campaign success, Iowa is the first state to its nomination process, thus guaranteeing its importance. Two campaigns however, those of Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, decided to skip the caucuses to focus on the New Hampshire primary.
The process of caucusing is poorly understood in states without the practice. Monday night at 6:30, Iowa Democrats gathered at 1,993 precinct caucuses across the state and were asked to group themselves according to candidate preference. Any candidate with less than 15 percent of attendees was not considered viable and supporters joined other groups. The Kucinich campaign urged their supporters in precincts where Kuncinich was not viable to join the Edwards group. This might have contributed to Edwards' surprising second-place finish.
From Monday night's result, the Iowa Democratic Party will host county, congressional district, and finally a state convention to determine the state's delegates for this summer's Democratic National Convention in Boston.
