Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won New Hampshire's Democratic primary in a landslide Tuesday, capturing 39 percent of the vote and besting runner-up Howard Dean by 13 percentage points. Dean reportedly carried the town of Hanover, but Kerry garnered more votes in larger cities like Manchester and Nashua.
Kerry's victory represents an extraordinary turnaround that follows on the heels of his underdog victory in the Iowa primary last week. Polls conducted only two weeks ago showed him trailing Dean by as much as 17 percent in New Hampshire. Kerry's back-to-back wins established him as the candidate to beat in the minds of most political analysts Tuesday night.
Kerry, for his part, declared, "I love New Hampshire, and I love Iowa too," in a victory speech in Manchester.
Commentators predicted Dean's loss would prove problematic in upcoming primaries, particularly in view of widespread expectations that the former Vermont governor would easily win the election in his neighboring state. However, a decisive second-place finish will presumably keep Dean as a strong contender in the national race for the Democratic nomination.
Dean himself downplayed the day's results, noting that he was "even further behind when [he] came back from Iowa" in an interview on Tuesday night. Dean did acknowledged that his campaign had lost some its early momentum, however.
"I'm not the front-runner anymore," Dean said.
Dean was noticeably more restrained in his post-primary remarks than he was following a disappointing finish in Iowa last week. His tone was consistent with the milder demeanor he has displayed since the animated -- and widely criticized -- speech he delivered in Iowa.
At press time, Sen. John Edwards and Gen. Wesley Clark were battling it out for third place respectively, as both had received 12 percent of votes.
Commentators speculated Edwards will continue to intensely compete for votes in impending primaries, as the battleground states move further to the south. Indeed, many strategists theorized that the race for the Democratic nomination will eventually boil down to Kerry and Edwards.
"I think Edwards is the sleeper," former Al Gore campaign manager Donna Brazile told CNN. "More and more, people are looking at him now as the alternative to Kerry."
Analysts last night anticipated that Kerry would likely be challenged on his Senate voting record in coming primaries. In response to questions Tuesday night on CNN, Kerry reaffirmed his liberal values in the face of criticism of his relatively-conservative positions on guns and tax cuts.
Dean's runner-up standing came in spite of a last-minute advertising blitz in the state by campaign members. The Dean campaign spent over $1.15 million in New Hampshire in the week leading up to the primary -- almost twice as much as Kerry's campaign, according to estimates from Campaign Media Analysis Group. Clark, Kerry and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman all spent approximately $600,000 in the state in the past week and Edward's campaign spent at least $425,000.
Lieberman finished in fifth place with only 9 percent of the vote. Lieberman remained positive in post-poll interviews despite what some have seen as a somewhat-lackluster finish.
"No one thought I would've ended up this close to Wes Clark and John Edwards," Lieberman said. "I expect to do better and better."
Analysts, however, questioned how long Lieberman could remain a relevant candidate and how effective his fundraising efforts could be in the immediate future.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Rev. Al Sharpton brought up the rear of the pack, with Kucinich gaining 2 percent and Sharpton getting less than 1 percent of the vote.
The New Hampshire primary has not been the most accurate predictor of the the Democratic Party's nominee in elections past. In 1999, Gore won the state's primary before going on to gain his party's nomination for the national election. However, Paul Tsongas '62 beat out Bill Clinton in New Hampshire in 1992 but ultimately was not the Democratic nominee.
