As coalition forces close in on Baghdad and media reports flow continuously, the war in Iraq has captured the attention of the world. The next few days will be a pivotal time, according to three Dartmouth professors, but it will likely take far longer to unravel some of the puzzles of the current conflict.
The Road Ahead
According to government professor Allan Stam, the most problematic part of the conflict will begin in the coming days, when coalition troops arrive in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. "If the guys in Baghdad don't surrender when we get there, it becomes difficult: troops have to either cordon the city off and wait or try take Baghdad," Stam said.
Regardless of which course is taken, Stam believes that a decision will be made in the near future. "We're going to find out how the rest of the war will go in the next 72 hours," Stam said. "It may be a quick one or it may take a long time."
Hussein's Fate
British and American military officials remained uncertain of the status or location of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein yesterday. Hussein appeared on Iraqi television on Sunday and appeared to exhibit a knowledge of current events. Most American military officials have thus concluded that Hussein is still living.
Stam agreed, though he acknowledged the possibility that the Iraqi leader is dead. "My best guess is that he's alive, and the odds are that he's injured in some way," Stam said. "However, it's important for people on the Iraqi side to see Hussein on TV."
Opposition to War
In the United States, a number of anti-war organizations have coordinated protests in recent days, mostly in large cities. There have also been substantial protests in nations around the world against American foreign policy and military actions, including demonstrations in many Middle Eastern countries.
"There have been huge riots against the war in Egypt, Georgia and Yemen," government professor Daryl Press said. "Police in various countries have had to use rubber bullets."
Although Press said that recent events have damaged America's reputation in the international community, he believes that future developments will matter more in the final analysis: the world will closely observe the condition of Iraq after the conclusion of war and the subsequent, presumably U.S.-financed reconstruction.
"If the war goes well, if Iraqi civilian casualties are low, and if Iraq is nice afterwards, then all the complaints will be forgotten in six months," Press said. "It's a grand roll of the dice."
Public Opinion
The majority of Americans continue to favor military intervention -- in an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted on Sunday, 72 percent of respondents favored war. A slightly higher percentage approved of President Bush's handling of the Iraqi conflict.
Government professor Con-stantine Spiliotes described the current American reaction as "very typical."
"Americans always rally 'round the flag in an international crisis," Spiliotes said.
In the long term, however, public opinion of the president will depend on the success of the war in conjunction with the state of the economy and other key issues, according to Spiliotes. "If it's over in a reasonably short time, anything could happen," Spiliotes said.
Most Americans also believe that Iraq harbors weapons of mass destruction. In a recent NBC poll, 62 percent of respondents thought it was "very likely" that coalition forces would find chemical and biological weapons.
Indeed, the threat of such weapons has been the thrust of Bush's argument for intervention in Iraq. In his statement immediately following initial raids last Wednesday, Bush said American military action was warranted because "the people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder."
As a result of this rhetoric, Spiliotes said, there will be increasing pressure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Nevertheless, the professor said that the Bush administration will likely attempt to diffuse anticipation that a discovery will come quickly. "The issue is very important but [the administration] will tamp down expectations that we'll find this stuff in the next couple days," Spiliotes said.
Conflict in Progress
Coalition forces in Iraq faced growing danger yesterday as the U.S.-led offensive drew within 50 miles of Baghdad. At least 39 American and British soldiers have lost their lives in the conflict so far, according to CNN.
Widespread sandstorms slowed the progress of coalition troops pushing towards the Iraqi capital, while intense conflict persisted in the South. The prospect of urban warfare has particularly stymied coalition ground forces, who have encountered Iraqi troops and vehicles dug into a few cities. American-led troops continue to encounter sporadic resistance in Basra, the country's second largest municipality, and Nasiriya, a city near the coalition's main route to Baghdad.
Hostilities began in Iraq last Wednesday evening, between Winter and Spring terms at Dartmouth and after most undergraduates had left campus. American air units attacked multiple targets around the country, including three structures around Baghdad. American civilian and military officials hoped that the initial attack would kill Hussein.
Extensive, U.S.-led airstrikes followed in subsequent days, intended to arouse "shock and awe" in members of the Iraqi military. Coalition ground troops also crossed the Kuwaiti border into Iraq on Thursday, beginning what has since been a rapid trek toward Baghdad.
Many countries immediately condemned coalition military action, which came without approval from the United Nations Security Council. The leaders of most Arab and predominantly Muslim Asian countries decried the war, joining the French, Germans and Russians in opposition.
In response, Bush has assembled a coalition of as many as 48 nations which favor intervention in Iraq. The vast majority of troops currently involved in battle in Iraq are American, British or Australian.
