Although even more Democrats are expected to join the robust pool of presidential candidates by the end of the month, this year's large playing field -- and the motives behind its entrants' decisions to run -- have yet to buck historical trends for a party attempting to regain the White House, experts say.
As none of the six announced candidates have attained a significant lead, Washington insiders speculate that lesser-known Democratic hopefuls, including Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) and former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (Ill.), will announce decisions to run by next week.
Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.) is also expected to announce whether he will run in upcoming weeks. He is currently recovering from heart surgery performed on Jan. 31.
Political analysts expect Sen. Joe Biden (Del.) to hold off launching a campaign until fall, while former Sen. Gary Hart (Colo.) continues a tour of the nation to speak on policy issues. Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.) has yet to announce or rule out a run. Former NATO commander Wesley Clark should also be added to the list of potential candidates, analysts say.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman and Rev. Al Sharpton have already announced their respective candidacies.
While a large number of politicians mulling runs is common early in a presidential race, this year's fervor may have been heightened by former Vice President Al Gore's surprise decision to drop out of the contest, government professor Dean Spiliotes said.
"I think there's a sense that there will be more people getting in," Spiliotes said, noting the lack of a predetermined frontrunner as a potential source of encouragement for less visible candidates. "The thought process seems to be that if so-and-so is getting into the race, why not me?"
Rather than pursuing the presidency as a feasible goal, some lower-profile candidates may instead enter with hopes of shaping the race's tone, Spiliotes added. "Practically, it may put pressure on other candidates ... any of these candidates that have less electoral viability are in there to affect the discourse a bit."
As examples, Spiliotes cited the cases of Sharpton and Kucinich, the leader of the Democratic Progressive Caucus and a self-described advocate of a federal "Department of Peace."
"[Kucinich] wants to be the true anti-war candidate," Spiliotes said.
This stance places the Ohio congressman at the far left of the line of hopefuls on the contentious issue of Iraq, with the pro-war Lieberman at the opposite end. The remainder of the prospects lie in somewhere in between -- a sentiment that in some ways mimics the diffuse opinions of the nation.
According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, while 63 percent of Americans support an invasion of Iraq, many remain unconvinced that Iraq represents an immediate threat -- only four in 10 are willing for the United States to invade without a new authorizing vote by the U.N. Security Council.
But to the chagrin of less prominent candidates, their influence on Democratic frontrunners such as Kerry and Gephardt carries an expiration date, Spiliotes added. Once the prohibitive costs of running a campaign force minor players to exit the race, their messages disappear, too.
Not all latecomers will have such limited holds on the public, according to Brookings Institution senior fellow and campaign expert Steve Hess.
"I think Bob Graham will be on a fairly level field with the other senators, from Kerry to Edwards," Hess said.
Historical data indicates that by 2003's close, the list of candidates will have thinned out considerably, he said. "This is as typical as it is for an out-party -- just look back at this time in 1975 or 1987."
And for those who have led in the fight for the nomination, the prospect of new entrants has been met with calm, at least publicly.
"Sen. Kerry has always expected more candidates to get in the race," said the Massachusetts senator's deputy campaign press secretary Kelly Benander. "He certainly looks forward to a vigorous debate."
Kerry is currently leading in polls among New Hampshire Democrats, who are slated to cast their primary ballots Jan. 27, 2004.
