When asked about the possible outcome of the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary, Rockefeller Center Director Linda Fowler replied, "This is a race that smart people don't make predictions about."
First of all, U.S. Representative John Sununu has challenged incumbent Senator Bob Smith for the Republican nomination, a move both Fowler and government department colleague Professor Constantine Spiliotes described as "unusual."
Fowler added that it is especially rare for Republican candidates to challenge an incumbent, since the GOP has a more tightly organized hierarchy than does the Democratic party.
It is not clear, though, whether Sununu or Smith will prevail. While the two candidates have similar positions on most significant issues, there are nonetheless important differences in their personal styles, the amount of funds they have amassed to date and their experience.
Both Fowler and Smith's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, saw few differences between the candidates' positions on most specific issues.
Each candidate is committed to cutting taxes, reforming education and passing what Sununu's campaign manager Paul Collins described as "a balanced energy plan, for example.
Fowler said that Smith's strengths include the amount of money he has raised to date.
By contrast, Sununu has only raised $600,000 so far, according to Fowler.
"That's barely enough for a House race, let alone a Senate one." She added that she could not explain why Sununu has not had more success acquiring funds.
Smith's campaign manager, Corey Lewandoski, described his candidate's prior experience in the Senate and strong grass-roots organization as among his most important strengths.
"Smith's currently number 30 in the U.S. Senate," Lewandnowski said of Smith's seniority ranking based on years of service, "but either Shaheen or Sununu would only be number 100."
"Smith would also be Number Two on the Armed Services committee, and he would be chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee," Lewandowski said, suggesting that his high standing within these committees could attract dollars to New Hampshire.
Both Lewandowski and Fowler also noted that Smith has built one of the strongest grass-roots organizations in the country.
"Smith's ran and prevailed in some tight races before, and he's won when people haven't expected him to," Fowler said.
Sununu's sources of strength include his strong poll numbers and what Fowler termed his "less colorful" demeanor.
Many people within the Republican party, for example, became irritated when Smith decided to leave the party to run for the presidency and then came back when he was offered the chairmanship of the Environmental and Public Works committee, according to Fowler.
Likewise, Smith's strategy of attacking Sununu's Lebanese heritage also backfired, according to Fowler.
Fowler also noted that Sununu has been trying to subtly draw attention to his more subdued personal style in much of his campaign rhetoric. Collins' remarks throughout his interview that Sununu has the "ability to provide strong and reliable leadership" may be an example of this strategy.
President Bush's personal connections to the Sununu family -- Sununu's father was former President George Bush Sr. Senior's chief of staff -- may also affect the eventual outcome of the race, according to Fowler.
Thus far, Bush has not said anything publicly about his views on the New Hampshire race, but several people within his administration have endorsed Sununu, she said.
Levels of interest in the Democratic gubernatorial primary will likely also affect the actual outcome of the primary, Fowler said.
In New Hampshire, independents may temporarily register as either Republicans or Democrats on election day. Thus, the number of independents who register to vote Democratic in order to vote in the gubernatorial primary may affect the outcome of the Republican senatorial primary, according to Fowler.
Fowler also noted that, while New Hampshire has long been a strongly Republican state, New Hampshire has been moving more and more toward the center.
The New Hampshire Senate race has also captured much attention nationally because the Senate is so evenly divided.
"If Shaheen were to win, it would be a critical loss for the Republican side," Spiliotes said.
"I predict it will be get nastier between Sununu and Smith," he added.
