The United States will enter into a war with Iraq in the near future, religion Professor Kevin Reinhart predicted yesterday at a panel discussion of "the axis of evil" comment made by President George W. Bush during his State of the Union address in January.
"States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world," Bush said during his speech, which singled out Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
The speech's focus on foreign affairs and terrorism was designed "to shift focus from the economy and scandals" like the Enron collapse, history Professor Gene Garthwaite said, one of three faculty members on yesterday's panel.
Pessimistic about the outcome of a war with Iraq, Reinhart said that "if we go in, it will not be a success story such as that in Afghanistan."
There are no rebel groups in Iraq equivalent to Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, he told more than 50 students in Collis Commonground. "There is no population waiting to rise up."
Even if the United States were to defeat Iraq's well-trained army -- which he said is far stronger than the Taliban forces -- the United States and its allies are left with the issue of what to do with the nation, Reinhart said.
The three speakers agreed that Iran was included in the list because of the history the United States has with the nation, not because it poses any real threat.
"Iran is easily a decade away from such weapons" of mass destruction they are accused of creating, and has not been proven to sponsor terror groups, Garthwaite said.
He noted, however, that Iran did emerge the victor from a decade-long war with Iraq, and now "has the largest and most effective navy and air force in the region," Garthwaite said.
Garthwaite suggested that "North Korea was added almost as an afterthought" to protect Bush from appearing to be anti-Muslim.
North Korea does belong as a member of the "axis of evil" because "they attempted to assassinate the presidents of South Korea on a fairly regular basis in the 1960s and 70s," government Professor David Kang said.
"I don't think the 'axis of evil' statement was as big as everyone made it out to be" and is unlikely to significantly change U.S. foreign policy towards North Korea, he said.
The current American policy of containment is likely to counteract the progress made towards peace during the Clinton administration, he said, though he doubts that there will at any point be a shooting war on the peninsula.
The Cold War, though it has ended everywhere else, still exists between North and South Korea, Kang said.
"There is no other border that is as heavily guarded" as the demilitarized zone in Korea, he said, adding that the United States has been officially at war with the nation for 52 years.
"I think we have some very rough waters ahead," Kang concluded.
No military action against any of these nations can be conducted without international support, Reinhart said.
"The Bush administration has been brilliant in keeping an international coalition" against terrorism, but he said that further action is likely to bring dissent.
Arab nations, for example, would oppose an invasion of Iraq, he said.
Garthwaite noted that "the United States has never supported a democratic regime in the Middle East," a fact which he said could also hamper our alliance.
He also questioned the grouping of the nations, saying that "Iraq, Iran and Korea could not be more different."
