America's computer systems could be the next victims of terrorist attacks, according to a new report by Dartmouth's Institute for Security Technology Studies.
The report, called "Cyber Attacks During the War on Terrorism: A Predictive Analysis," discusses instances of previous cyber-attacks by terrorist groups, predicts the form future attacks against the United States are likely to take and recommends steps that to prevent cyber-terrorism.
The report says cyber-attackers -- those who misuse Internet technology to cripple computer systems -- are likely to deface web sites by replacing site content, by flooding networks and systems with useless traffic and by developing and implanting malicious viruses and worms.
While the Sept. 11 terrorist attack shut down New York's financial district, a successful cyber-attack could shut down entire government systems.
The institute's research has found that cyber-attacks are not likely to kill people, as last month's terrorist attacks did, but targeting computer systems could interfere with electrical grids and utilities, among other networks, and could severely damage the nation's economy.
Cyber-terrorists have targeted the U.S. government before, and the security technology institute predicted that as terrorist groups become increasingly more sophisticated, the level of damage they will be able to cause will become more dangerous and more likely.
While the report states that it is unclear whether Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida network is capable of cyber-terrorism, such groups do have a relatively sophisticated knowledge of information technology.
Ramzi Yousef, whose bombing of the World Trade Center of 1994 has been linked to bin Laden's Al-Qaida, had encrypted files on his laptop which contained plans for future terrorist attacks on planes in the Pacific.
Even if bin Laden and Al-Qaida do not have the capabilities to launch cyber-attacks yet, the report's authors worry that Muslim fundamentalist groups generally unsympathetic to the U.S. may attempt cyber-attacks.
Likewise, the report points out that several extreme anti-capitalist and anti-globalist organizations have praised the Sept. 11 attacks as a fair retaliation against American retaliation. Some such organizations have used cyber-warfare in the past, and may do so again against the U.S.
Finally, isolated "thrill seekers" seeking notoriety may "jump on the bandwagon of a cyber-conflict between the United States and its enemies." While such attacks will probably do little harm, the authors worry that even small-scale cyber-warfare can disrupt commerce and the functioning of the government.
The report names various types of institutions particularly vulnerable to cyber-attacks, including banks and other financial institutions, voice communication systems, electricity, oil and gas grids, and water resource management institutions.
Michael Vatis, director of the institute, said there is a "tremendous amount" of research to be done, and predicted that Dartmouth would be on the leading edge of that investigation.
"The Sept. 11 attacks will clearly lead to a lot more attention to counterterrorism," he said. "I think counterrorism, in the foreseeable future, will be our number one national security concern."
The institute has received federal funds to research advanced security methods that will protect the nation's most sensitive systems. There are also efforts underway by private companies to devise new ways of protecting websites and computer networks.
These private and public initiatives seek to improve on measures currently in place, such as requiring passwords, using virus detection software and imposing firewalls.
The report recommends that the U.S. government watch vigilantly for possible signs of hostile cyber-activity, have procedures in place for reporting possible hostile activity to law enforcement, maintaining tight security by routinely updating software and installing filtering software for worms and viruses.
