In less than three weeks, the Republican Party will simultaneously control both the Executive and Legislative Branches for the first time in a generation while conservatives also slightly outnumber liberals in the Supreme Court. Though the GOP is technically in control, don't expect a new Contract with America to be coming anytime soon. With a virtual tie in Congress following a very close presidential election, the honeymoon will be short-lived. The two parties must either learn to find common ground, or we will see gridlock that is even worse than the showdowns that led to two government shutdowns.
Both official and unofficial leaders of the two parties will determine the dominant tone inside the Beltway for the next two years. This may be a great opportunity for a new generation of leaders to emerge or it could be a continuation of the partisanship that has dominated the last several Congressional sessions. If the 107th Congress is once again a battle of partisan bickering between Trent Lott and Tom Daschle, very little will be accomplished.
If President-elect Bush is able to use his genial personality and political skill to reach across the aisle as he did in Texas, there is a lot of room for agreement. If the Congressional leaders on both sides can't get along, Bush may have to go over their heads and deal directly with moderate Democrats. We could see the emergence of a new class of moderates taking center stage.
Centrists like Democrat John Breaux and Republican J.C. Watts are young, charismatic and willing to work together. The public is tired of the Old Guard's bickering, and this new generation may be seen as a popular alternative. Bush's greatest political accomplishment and possible key to re-election could be convincing the public that he is the catalyst who ushered in a new era of civility.
The Bush administration should look to get the ball rolling in the first 100 days by quickly addressing three pieces of legislation that easily passed Congress in the past. Clinton vetoed the ban on partial birth abortion, the elimination of the marriage penalty and the repeal of the death tax even though all three had significant support from many Democrats. Sweeping legislation will not happen during this Congress; rather the best Bush should hope for is incremental conservative policy wins. Once everyone gets used to working together with the new agenda, then more aggressive legislation, like a sizable tax cut, can be ushered in. Sources close to the new administration realize that some more controversial legislation, like school vouchers, will have to be put on the back burner at least for the time being.
The first test of good faith by the Democrats will come in the way that they handle the cabinet appointments. Though the election was very close, Bush will be sworn in as the 43rd president and should be allowed to select any fit candidate to serve in his cabinet. Traditionally, the Senate has only rejected candidates if there were serious problems or wrongdoings. The Senate has not, and should not reject candidates based on their political philosophy. John Ashcroft, Bush's selection for Attorney General, may be more conservative than most Americans, but so is Bush, and so are the millions of people that voted for him (more than voted for Clinton in fact).
When Bush enters Washington as President he will find it more difficult to find common ground between Republicans and Democrats than he did in Texas as governor. Partisan divisions have grown even deeper due to the closeness of the election, and Bush will be facing a media and many Democrats who privately and sometimes publicly question his legitimacy as President. Bush has to convince the many skeptics that he has the skills to govern and finding common ground will the first test. If he can broker peace on Capitol Hill, the American people will trust him to broker peace abroad, and solve domestic problems. Then, they will finally reward him with the mandate that the divisive election did not provide.
