Linda Fowler, director of Rockefeller Center for the Social Sciences, appeared yesterday evening on CNN's "Inside Politics," where she discussed poll results that favored Sen. Bob Dole in the upcoming New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.
The Rockefeller Center joined with television station WMUR-TV in Manchester to take the poll, the first of six polls between now and the Feb. 20 primary.
The Dartmouth College/WMUR poll of 483 people showed that 34.9 percent of voters favor Sen. Dole, R-Kan., for president. The next largest percentage of voters, 20.9 percent, said they were undecided.
Conservative television commentator Pat Buchanan took third place with 8.8 percent, followed by relative newcomer Steven Forbes with 6.7 percent. Former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander rounded out the top five with 6.6 percent of the vote. The margin of error of the poll was plus/minus 3 percent.
Interestingly, 31 percent of those polled said they would change their vote in favor of retired Gen. Colin Powell if he chooses to run for president.
About 50 Dartmouth students conducted the poll through telephone interviews. The students will participate in five more polls, two before the end of the year, according to Jim Brennan '96, the political programs intern at the Rockefeller Center.
In addition to appearing on CNN, Fowler analyzed the poll results on the five o'clock and six o'clock WMUR evening news.
Fowler said Dartmouth got involved in the polling project because it "serves the interests of the broader scholarly community," adding she is particularly "interested in the effects of campaigns on election results."
Many of the poll questions are "horse race" questions to see who is currently ahead, Fowler said. In later polls, questions will be designed to see how the "unfolding campaign shapes the voters perceptions of candidates."
In her CNN appearance, Fowler said Powell is the "big unknown" factor in the presidential race.
If Powell runs for the Republican nomination, it will create a "difficult situation for Dole," she said. Dole would still begin with an advantage in New Hampshire because the primary here is "Dole's race," she said.
The large percentage of undecided voters is due to the fact that the primary season has just begun, Fowler said, and voters have not yet seen, heard or received phone calls from candidates soliciting votes.
On the 5 o'clock WMUR news, Fowler said 65 percent of people polled would like to see the candidates spend more time dealing with issues relevant to the economy.
Abortion is not a big issue in this election, Fowler said on WMUR. "New Hampshire is just like the rest of the country ... the majority support the status quo," she said.
Fowler said polling consultant Tammy Buhr helped design the format of the poll questions. Buhr is currently completing her dissertation at Harvard on the effects of media on voter decision.
Fowler will appear on "Inside Politics" with CNN anchor Bernard Shaw again on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m., following the first national debate of Republican candidates, which will be sponsored held in New Hampshire at the WMUR studios.
Fowler said she will attend the debate and is taking a group of freshmen called the First Year Student Forum with her. The First Year Student Forum meets weekly and consists of students interested in politics.
