As the second part of yesterday's conference on Mexican development and democracy, a panel of experts predicted the future of the country's political situation in a discussion titled, "What Now?"
Adolfo Aguilar Ziner, an opposition member of the Mexican Congress, said "Mexico is really a mess." Aguilar was elected to the Partido Revolucional Democratico, but has since formed his own independent caucus.
He predicted Mexico's future could involve either an allied democracy or civic chaos and social unrest.
"The democratic concern has to be built around the consensus that the regime has already ended -- [people] must put together unifying opposition forces," he said.
New York Times Mexican Bureau Chief Tim Golden '83 said the lesson of 1994 is to "never try to predict the future of Mexico."
Golden said various questions in Mexico concern the future of the ruling Partido Revolucional Institucional, the situation of the rebellion in Chiapas and the country's current economic crisis.
"Mexican leaders convinced themselves and national leaders and the United States that policies would work ...and lead to economic prosperity," he said. "Despite upbeat pronouncements by the IMF and Warren Christopher, the administration is starting to see that the challenges over the next six years are greater than they thought six months ago."
Golden said in order to improve the political climate in Mexico, certain issues must be addressed including attracting foreign investment, developing trade policy, increasing domestic savings and taking advantage of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Susan Kaufman Purcell, the vice president of the Americas Society and managing director of the Council of the Americas, had a more upbeat outlook about Mexico's future.
"My guess is that Mexico will be moving over the next decade along a path of greater democracy and a greater rule of law and it will not be a straight line," she said.
Kaufman Purcell said NAFTA "has created a political constituency within the U.S., which are keeping a very critical eye on what is going on in Mexico."
John Womack, a Latin American History and Economics professor at Harvard University, said he had three predictions for the future of Mexican politics: a tendency toward democracy, "normalcy" in the system and political reform of the current system by the same type of politicians.
"I have a gloomy view of what is going to happen," he said.
Womack also said U.S. elections and the U.S. economy could severely impact Mexico. "If [there is a recession in the U.S. in 1997] it will probably begin to have its effect in Mexico just about the time they are having their elections that summer."
He noted the tendency for people to focus attention merely on elections and give little to the years in-between. "The fascination with elections is a complete misconception of politics here or in Mexico," he said.
