The cryptic playoff picture in the ECAC will be finalized for good this weekend, the last one of the regular season.
As convoluted as it is, there is a scenario that would allow twelfth-place Dartmouth to get into the postseason dance.
To make the playoffs Dartmouth must first win both of their games this weekend, against Princeton and Yale and hope the Union Skating Dutchmen lose both their games on the road, against Colgate and Cornell.
This would lift Dartmouth into a tenth-place tie with Union.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, which would not break the tie, since the Dartmouth-Union season series ended tied 1-1.
The second tiebreaker is composite points against the Top 4 league teams. Union wins this tiebreaker under every scenario unless Colgate finishes in the Top 4, in which case Union and Dartmouth would have the same number of points.
For Colgate to finish in the Top 4, it must win both of their games, while RPI and Princeton must lose both of their games.
If Union and Dartmouth are still tied, the next tiebreaker is record vs. the Top 8.
Again, Union holds the advantage here, but Dartmouth can win the tiebreaker if St. Lawrence does not finish in the Top 8.
Dartmouth went 0-2 against St. Lawrence this season while Union was 2-0 against the Saints, so if St. Lawrence does not finish in the Top 8, the Big Green will have more points against Top 8 teams than Union.
Therefore, St. Lawrence must lose two games, and Cornell and Vermont must both sweep.
So, the Big Green's chances to make the playoffs are not mathematically impossible, just an extreme longshot.
