With the Winter Olympics set to begin next week, The Dartmouth sat down with government professor William Wohlforth to discuss security preparations in Sochi, Russia and the possibility of a terrorist attack. Wohlforth specializes in Russian foreign policy and international security.
What is the risk of a terror attack occurring at the Winter Olympics in Sochi?WW: Higher than any other Olympics I can think of. You have a credible threat, you have groups that have a very powerful incentive to conduct an attack, you have a recent attack in Volgograd — not very close, but not all that far — where responsibility was taken by the very same group that issued the threat to the Sochi Olympics. You add all that up, and there’s a credible threat. But we have to differentiate between an attack that is somehow associated with the Olympics, and an actual attack on the athletic events. The latter would be very difficult to achieve; the former, not as difficult.
You mentioned that attacks might not be at the Olympic games, but instead in areas around Sochi. What would such an attack look like?WW: Where the athletes and guests will be, an attack is very difficult. The city will be under very intensive security measures, but slightly less than the central areas [where the games are taking place]. And then, from a terrorist perspective, what if you hit a nearby city? It’s close enough to seem like an attack on the Olympics.
What would the implications be for Russian leadership if something like this took place?WW: A spectacular attack on the Olympics themselves would be devastating to the prestige of Russia in the world community and for the prestige of the Russian government before its own people.
What is the upside? What if the Russian government can ensure an incident-free Olympics?WW: If people go there and the media go there and there’s no attack, it will definitely be helpful to Russia’s image. However, it’s marred by a large number of problems, in particular the recent anti-LGBT legislation, so there’s an issue of human rights that’s not really good for Russia’s image in the West no matter what happens. There has also been a lot of corruption around these Olympics — a lot of overpriced construction projects. The image of Russia would be helped if the Olympics go off without a hitch, but there will still be tarnish on it.
So, in general, the threat of an attack is high, but athletes and spectators inside central Olympic areas are not in imminent danger?WW: It’s hard for me to say. However, if I were an athlete or the parent of an athlete, I would go. If a country like Russia decides it’s not going to tolerate a terrorist attack within a specific zone, it’s going to be a very hard target.
— Compiled by Chris Leech
